June 2008 Amarillo Economic Analysis
Good news amidst a sea of bad economic news. Amarillo retail sales and job growth march upward while construction is holding flat and commodities boom.
Retail sales were up 10% from 12 months earlier even though auto sales declined.
Steady job growth continues with 1,400 more people working. Wages in Potter and Randall Counties are up sharply for 2007 (which were down from 2006, showing an error in the State’s numbers) so really Amarillo wages are up 4% each of the last two years as our job market remains tight.
Building permits are down 45% from 12 months ago but flat year to date and flat for trailing six months representing construction in progress.
Wheat yields are “awful”, especially compared to last year’s record crop. 15-25 bushels per acre vs. 60 last year for irrigated wheat and 4-15 bushels per acre vs. 40 from last year’s dry land crop. 50% higher prices offset some of the drop but wheat income is going to be off by 40%.
Oil, gas, and corn have doubled over last year, providing a strong boost to the Panhandle.
Our Index of Leading Indicators for Amarillo shows a strong positive number for June. March was slightly up following February’s strong upward signal, reversing the trend last fall which showed negative numbers. Since this is most accurate four months out, it forecasts a good summer for Amarillo as we continue to counter national trends.
| April 2008 | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index* | $218.10 | $216.90 | $199.30 |
| $Sales Tax Collections | $4,579,051 | $5,427,959 | $4,176,361 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $29,290,614 | $24,711,562 | $27,826,123 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 1,308 | 1,364 | 1,292 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,320 | 1,568 | 1,535 |
| Total Vehicle Registrations | 18,587 | 22,492 | 23,461 |
| Postal Receipts | $2,150,860 | $2,077,984 | $2,265,074 |
| Airline Boardings | 40,970 | 38,225 | 41,893 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $316,590 | $351,585 | $312,400 |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 187,609 | 187,609 | 187,609 |
| Employment - CLF | 129,500 | 129,100 | 128,000 |
| Unemployment Rate | 3.10% | 2.80% | 3.10% |
| Total Workers Employed | 125,400 | 125,500 | 124,000 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $713.80 | $644.22 | $663.03 |
| Gas | 65,541 | 65,530 | 67,526 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | 6.63% | 6.13% | 6.75% |
| Year To Date Permits Dollar Amount | $20,772,288 | $30,011,808 | $37,918,866 |
| Year To Date Permits | 143,980,843 | 123,208,555 | 134,110,514 |
| Residential Starts | 48 | 56 | 64 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 86 | 86 | 66 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $129.05 | $121.77 | $63.65 |
| Natural Gas | $12.53 | $11.31 | $7.43 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $8.60 | $7.34 | $5.54 |
| Fat Cattle Per CWT | $95.00 | $94.00 | $90.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $7.29 | $5.86 | $4.34 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $60.22 | $57.71 | $47.99 |
*Base-100, January 1988
