February 2010 Amarillo Economic Analysis

Amarillo’s economy showed gains from 12 months ago although retail sales and employment saw continued decreases. The gains came mostly from strengthening commodity prices and home building.

The State revised our employment numbers showing a strong increase in part- time workers, while the Employers Survey continued to show declines. Amarillo’s increase in people with some type of jobs (The Household Survey) was up 2,900 (with the revision) from a year ago. Lubbock was up 2,400 and Midland/Odessa were down 7,200. The Employers Survey was not revised as much. It shows 1,600 less people working in Amarillo with drops of 600 in Construction, and 600 in Transportation & Utilities while Government was up 900 from a year ago. The important Manufacturing sector shows a drop of 400 which is better news than last fall when it was down 1,000. Lubbock is down 2,400 and Midland/Odessa down a whopping 11,800 in this Employers Survey.

City	Household Survey-Jan 2010		Employers Survey-Jan 2010
	Workers Employed	% Change from Jan 2009	Workers Employed	% Change from Jan 2009
Amarillo	124.60	2.38%	108.80	-1.45%
Lubbock/Midland	137.70	1.77%	127.70	-1.84%
Odessa	133.30	-5.12%	120.60	-8.91%

Amarillo’s other numbers continue to be negative with Sales Tax Collections down 5% bringing the year to date to a 6% decline. This represents the Christmas season so only dropping 5% is relatively good news. Vehicle sales continue off 20% and postal receipts were off a stunning 37%.

Airline Boardings are down 10% for January, but bad weather closed the airport some days and these numbers may not reflect economic activity.

Construction was up from last month but half of it was a waste water treatment plant. Our construction in progress, which represents the last six months building permits, is down 10% from the level of a year ago as overall construction slows. Residential starts were up to 48 from 39 a year ago.

Commodity prices are down slightly from last month and about flat with a year ago except for cotton, which is up 80%. The good moisture should help the wheat crop, and cattle are getting closer to a break-even.

Our CPI was essentially flat, down .23% from one year ago with Utilities and Misc. Goods & Services up, and Groceries, Housing, & Health down.

Our Leading Index has turned positive representing our guess for economic activity four months from now. All components except retail sales and the local stock index showed increases from the prior reporting period.

February 2010	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index*	$186.75	$169.87	$170.40
Sales Tax Collections	$5,877,858	$4,307,158	$6,208,231
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$10,185,016	$4,307,158	$10,841,389
New Vehicle Sales	660	672	845
Used Vehicle Sales	1,098	1,321	1,313
Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)	14,886	17,350	17,688
Postal Receipts	$1,454,129	$1,456,003	$2,339,647
Airline Boardings	26,091	35,395	29,259
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$302,783	$288,905	$316,164
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	132,500	131,300	127,800
Unemployment Rate	6.00%	5.40%	4.80%
Total Workers Employed	124,600	124,200	121,700
Average Weekly Wages	$678.58	$683.90	$736.42
Gas	67,150	67,055	66,504
Water Connection	66,641	66,682	66,140
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	5.13%	5.00%	5.38%
Year To Date Permits Dollar Amount	$41,026,211	$15,563,548	$57,808,005
Residential Starts	48	40	39
Six Months Trailing	225,003	214,274	249,114
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	42	46	38
Oil Price Per Barrel	$70.25	$75.51	$42.91
Natural Gas	$5.48	$5.78	$5.09
Wheat Per Bushel	$4.26	$4.68	$4.68
Fat Cattle Per CWT	$92.00	$85.50	$82.80
Corn Per Bushel	$3.63	$3.74	$3.39
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$72.58	$69.37	$39.56

*Base-100, January 1988