January 2012 Amarillo Economic Analysis
Strong job growth is helping Amarillo's economy although construction and commodities turned negative last month.
According to the Household Survey, Amarillo has gained 2,800 jobs from 12 months ago and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9%. Average weekly wages are only up 1% during that period so many of the new jobs might not be high paying. The Employer's survey shows a gain of 2,000 jobs with manufacturing being 20% of these gains. In the same survey, Lubbock shows an increase of 4,400 jobs and Midland/Odessa is up 3,400.
Retail sales during November are up 6% from 12 months ago. New car sales during 2011 were up 17% from 2010; while used car sales were down during the same period. December Airline Boardings are down 7% compared to Lubbock (-3%) and Midland/Odessa (+3%).
Construction has really slowed down as building permits (mostly commercial) are down 60% and the work in process is down 40%. Residential starts are flat with last year.
Farm commodities are down across the board. Compounded with the drought, prices for cotton (-35%), corn (-1%), and wheat (-18%) are bad news for area farmers.
Dairies remain profitable with milk prices at $18.80, up 28% from 12 months ago. Fat cattle prices are up 14% although profit margins continue to shrink due to high feeder prices.
Even though natural gas is down 50% at $2.37, the rig count is up by 6 (to 70), meaning the inexpensive drilling for oil is keeping activity booming. Oil prices are up 13% from last year.
Our leading index has been positive for the last 3 months led by employment and low interest rates. We continue to follow the drought's effects in these numbers.
| January 2012 | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index* | $197.25 | $199.09 | $224.55 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $4,828,200 | $4,744,598 | $4,728,099 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $4,828,200 | $61,805,523 | $4,728,099 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 934 | 881 | 907 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 503 | 575 | 1,374 |
| Vehicle Registrations (Stickers) | 15,928 | 14,759 | 17,645 |
| Airline Boardings | 34,043 | 33,684 | 36,481 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $374,186 | $390,360 | $347,250 |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 191,514 | 191,514 | 191,514 |
| Employment - CLF | 134,400 | 134,500 | 132,100 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.90% | 5.10% | 5.40% |
| Total Workers Employed | 127,800 | 127,600 | 125,000 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $711.55 | $711.55 | $704.87 |
| Gas | 67,149 | 66,998 | 66,830 |
| Water Connection | 67,803 | 67,519 | 67,225 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | 4.00% | 4.36% | 4.88% |
| Year To Date Permits Dollar Amount | $19,598,458 | $20,866,730 | $49,468,393 |
| Year To Date Permits | 19,598,458 | 276,199,746 | 49,468,393 |
| Residential Starts | 45 | 40 | 41 |
| Year To Date Total Starts | 45 | 553 | 41 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 70 | 70 | 64 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $96.51 | $96.26 | $84.98 |
| Natural Gas | $2.37 | $3.11 | $4.72 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $6.11 | $6.14 | $7.47 |
| Fat Cattle Per CWT | $122.00 | $124.00 | $107.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $6.28 | $6.22 | $6.32 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $90.05 | $95.03 | $137.85 |
| Milk | $18.80 | $19.07 | $14.75 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
