Economic Analysis

April 2020

Amarillo’s economy is taking part in the recovery with higher retail and auto sales, increasing jobs numbers, and higher commodity prices.

Retail sales are up 5.75% from a year ago, with Sales Tax Collections up 4.6% year to date.

New Car Sales are up 26% and Used Car Sales are up 8%. Area Dealers say the low supply of new cars from the manufacturers is keeping demand and profits higher than expected. Used Car prices continue to get stronger.

The Employers Survey shows that we are up 2,564 jobs from a year ago, when the shutdowns were in effect. The Household Survey shows a decrease of 1,325 jobs than was reported a year ago. We think this is a result of higher unemployment checks from the government. Most Amarillo major businesses are reporting problems finding people to hire, a problem not experienced in over 30 years.

Lubbock’s Household Survey shows a decrease of 3,345 jobs. Midland / Odessa is down 8,472.

Construction numbers appear to be up, but the Amazon Warehouse on the east side of Amarillo is propping up these numbers. Building permits for April are down 52% compared to last April, with Housing Starts down 10% from a year ago.

Oil and Gas is a big story so far this year. Oil prices are up to $63 from $20 a year ago. Natural Gas prices are at $2.66, up 63% from last April.
Cattle prices are up 15% from a year ago and Feedyards are profitable. Packing plants are reporting record profit margins as restaurants begin to take on full capacity.

Milk prices are up 17%. Input costs for Dairies are also up, so their margins will shrink in the short term.\

Wheat prices are up 50%. Corn prices are up 52% Cotton prices are up 19%.

We are going to closely monitor all price levels. Talking with our customers, along with commodity prices and interest rates, we believe that inflation is more pervasive than the Federal Reserve thinks.

Texas State, Cities, Counties and Airports are due to get a total of $88 Billion in Federal Stimulus funds. It will be interesting to see how it will be spent, and if it is spent efficiently; but it should slosh through the economy.

April 2020	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index^*	184.00	201.00	148.20
Sales Tax Collections	$5,822,908	$6,393,339	$5,507,678
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$27,497,080	$21,674,172	$26,295,300
New Vehicle Sales	722	489	575
Used Vehicle Sales	1,980	1,248	1,838
Airline Boardings	21,931	13,116	25,715
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$487,765	$672,696	$427,958
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	133,956	133,492	130,475
Unemployment Rate	4.90%	5.10%	3.50%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	127,440	126,651	125,876
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	120,500	119,415	121,825
Average Weekly Wages	$896.50	$896.50	$865.22
Gas	70,029	69,533	69,640
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	3.375%	3.250%	3.125%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$21,125,470	$164,066,949	$43,821,543
Year to Date Permits	$195,420,389	$17,294,919	$81,311,039
Residential Starts	26	58	29
Year To Date Starts	117	91	116
Six Months Trailing	$262,320	$306,790	$120,484
Median House Sold Price	$211,500	$200,000	$169,000
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	5	4	2
Oil Price Per Barrel	$63.12	$65.61	$20.82
Natural Gas	$2.66	$2.60	$1.63
Wheat Per Bushel	$6.54	$6.70	$4.35
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$120.50	$113.95	$105.00
Corn Per Bushel	$5.77	$5.60	$3.80
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$72.10	$16.00	$15.00
Milk	$17.59	$21.00	$19.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

Trends and Comparisons
April 2020

These industries employment levels are:

Comparison (vs. 12 mos. ago)	Amarillo		Lubbock
	February	March	February	March
Retail Sales (June)	+8.7%	+5.7%	-3.9%	+3%

Airline Boardings	+48%	-14%		+34%
Hotel Motel Tax	+49%	+14%		-59%

Building Permits Month	++940%	-51%	+3.8%	+109%
Housing Starts Month	+1.75%	-10%	+18%	+54%
Housing Start YTD	+4.6%	+.8%	+28%	-5%

Actuals
New Vehicle Sales	489	722	868	835
Used Vehicle Sales	1,248	1,980	1,792	2,424

Workers Employed
Household	126,591	127,440	154,565	155,280
Employers	119,400	120,500	147,200	147,400

Civil Labor Force	133,440	133,956	164,236	164,812