Economic Analysis

August 2019

Less jobs, flat retail sales, and lower commodity prices are keeping with the trend of an economic slowdown for our area.

Employment surveys are showing that there are less people working in Amarillo. The Household Survey shows we are down 1,200 jobs and the Employer’s Survey has us down 1,100 jobs. The unemployment rate ticked up from 2.7% last month to 2.8%. Wages are up 2.9% from a year ago.

Retail sales are flat with 12 months ago. Year to Date retail sales are up 1.7%. Compared to last August, new car sales are up 4% and used car sales are up 1%.

Housing construction is slower than last year. There were 38 residential starts last month and there were 46 in August 2018. Year to date starts are down 27% from 2018.

Overall construction is down 19% from last year with no big projects breaking ground.

Oil and Gas activity has slowed down. There are 15 drilling rigs in the Panhandle, down from 25 last summer. Oil prices are steady at $60.

Natural Gas prices remain stuck in a supply glut at $2.41. In the Permian Basin, there is so much gas and not enough pipeline to transport it. Some producers are getting $0.25/BTU while others are paying haulers to transport their gas. Gas prices will remain low for quite some time.

Commodities are having a rough summer. Wheat is down 13%. Corn, which will begin its harvest this month, us up 22% from a year ago. Area farmers are nervous about their cotton crops and prices are down 7%.

Cattle prices are flat with last year. A major packing plant in Kansas was shut down last week, and will put a strain on Fat Cattle prices in the near term. Dairies are profitable at $17 milk.

August 2019	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index^*	186.43	173.59	206.00
Sales Tax Collections	$7,494,726	$6,344,387	$7,452,403
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$52,630,361	$45,135,635	$51,765,879
New Vehicle Sales	563	642	540
Used Vehicle Sales	1,525	1,606	1,507
Airline Boardings	33,502	33,127	34,719
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$784,680	$656,305	$761,182
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	131,799	132,541	133,200
Unemployment Rate	2.80%	2.70%	2.90%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	128,054	128,983	129,400
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	120,100	121,600	121,200
Average Weekly Wages	$924.45	$924.45	$898.78
Gas	62,564	62,983	63,233
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	3.875%	4.125%	4.880%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$58,690,852	$25,433,767	$50,000,082
Year to Date Permits	$255,535,929	$196,890,076	$315,228,013
Residential Starts	38	42	46
Year To Date Starts	256	218	352
Median House Sold Price	$185,000	$177,900	$170,200
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	15	12	25
Oil Price Per Barrel	$55.23	$59.60	$70.75
Natural Gas	$2.41	$2.32	$2.77
Wheat Per Bushel	$4.31	$4.55	$4.96
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$109.62	$108.92	$110.93
Corn Per Bushel	$4.55	$4.62	$3.74
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$67.80	$71.70	$73.50
Milk	$17.00	$16.50	$13.75

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

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