Welcome, Guest
Please let us know how we can help.

Economic Analysis

March 2016

 

The economic slowdown affecting Amarillo has hit other West Texas cities.  The drop in all commodity prices makes this a region specific recession which we also saw for a short while in 2009 and for an extended time in the 1980’s.

Retail sales in Amarillo were up 3% from a year ago. Year to date sales are only up 1% from last year.

New car sales are down 10% but used car sales are up 18%. Lower gas prices have not spilled over into larger purchases the way they have in the past.

March brings the annual adjustment in the employment numbers. The Household Survey shows a decrease of 500 jobs while the Employer’s Survey shows an increase of 1,800 jobs with an increase of 500 in Health & Education. Amarillo wages are up 1% from last year.

The drop in Oil prices from over $100 to $30 has hit Midland/Odessa very hard. Compared to Amarillo and Lubbock, we can see how sensitive the Permian Basin is to drilling activity. Lubbock has been mostly resistant to the commodity collapse, but can’t be too confident.

 

 Change From 1 Yr Ago  Employers Survey  Household Survey  Retail Sales
 Amarillo  1,800  500  1%
 Lubbock  4,500  2,700  -0.65%
 Midland/Odessa  (11,600)  (12,500)  -19%

 

Low interest rates have not spurred homebuilding as it did in 2011. Even with good weather, year to date residential starts are down 13%. Total Building Permits are up 10% from last year while our construction in progress if flat with 12 months ago.

Oil has rallied a little in the last month and seen prices around $40 as of this printing. Natural gas, however, continues low at $1.88, down 31% from a year ago. That is the main reason we only have 10 drilling rigs in the Panhandle (down from 80 in 2014).

Cattle prices are higher than their low levels this fall, but still down 14% from 12 months ago.  Feedyards are still reporting unhedged losses per head around $130. Milk is steady at $14.40.

Wheat prospects will be helped if we get rain but prices are 23% below 12 months ago. Corn and Cotton prices are both down 7%.

  

March 2016Current MonthLast MonthLast Year

Index*

165.80

171.23

203.40

Sales Tax Collections

$5,312,076

$8,238,820

$5,143,577

Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$19,017,284

$8,238,820

$18,824,112

New Vehicle Sales

952

2,988

1,059

Used Vehicle Sales

3,450

820

2,930

Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)

 20,321

18,492

20,023

Airline Boardings

24,388

27,662

24,390

Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$389,152

$431,771

$426,996

Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

Employment - CLF

129,300

128,800

130,300

Unemployment Rate

 3.00%

2.90%

 3.30%

Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

125,400

124,000

126,000

Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

118,100

119,000

115,900

Average Weekly Wages

$789.67

$766.21

$779.35

Gas

62,556

62,556

62,458

Water Connection

69,442

69,479

69,125

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

3.88%

3.88%

3.87%

Building Permits Dollar Amount

$40,120,201

$25,871,307

$36,749,954

Year to Date Permits

$65,854,532

$25,871,307

$87,133,812  

Residential Starts

27

34

33

Year To Date Starts

61

34

54

Median House Sold Price

$145,000

$145,000

$147,500

Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

10

10

25

Oil Price Per Barrel

$25.56

$25.54

$40.96

Natural Gas

$1.97

$2.10

$2.73

Wheat Per Bushel

$3.98

$4.08

$5.19

Fed Cattle Per CWT

$138.00

$133.00

$160.97

Corn Per Bushel

$3.78

$3.79

$4.06

Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$58.00

$60.80

$58.60

Milk

$14.40

$14.85

$15.50


 

 *Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

Personalization Settings

x

Welcome

Amarillo National Bank would like to personalize your banking experience. Please enter your first name below.

This level of personalization will not lead to the sale of your name or leak your identity. The information you provide will only be stored on your computer and will not be transferred to the web server.

Please do not remind again