Economic Analysis

December 2014

Amarillo’s Economic Pulse declined this month with a 2.5% drop in retail sales and 155 fewer workers employed. Year to date retail sales are up only 2.2% vs. 5% in Lubbock.

Construction is about flat with last year both in total permits and number of new housing starts. The biggest permit was $14 million for a new Sam’s Club. Year to date housing starts are down 7%, while dollar permits are up 10%.

New and used vehicle sales are about flat, but airline boardings are down 5.7%. The motel tax is flat with last year.

The sharp drop in oil prices is beginning to affect drilling rigs, which are down 5 from last year. This decline will ripple through the economy over the next 12 months. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are starting to decline.

Wheat and corn prices turned up and the fall harvest helped the Panhandle economy, however cotton continues to be below last year and last month. Cattle are still doing well, even though their prices dropped slightly this month as did milk prices.

Our leading index has turned negative forecasting 4 months out. We will have our annual economic forecast in early January where we review all the components of the Amarillo Area Economy.

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.