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February 2024

Weakness showed in most of our categories for the Amarillo economy. Retail sales were down 5% from a year ago, bringing the 2-month YTD to flat.

Both New and Used vehicles sales were off 14%. Travel was the one bright spot, with Airline Boardings up 5% (continuing last year’s trend) and Motel taxes up 1%.

The state employment numbers are always recalculated in February and will be published March 8th.

Construction is the bright spot, even though mortgage rates are higher (7% vs 6.6% last year). Building Permits are off 27% from last year’s level, but construction in progress remains strong, especially in commercial properties, with our 6-month trailing being almost double last year’s. Even housing starts have rebounded with 46 versus only 17 twelve months ago.

Energy has slowed, with only one drilling rig operating versus 9 last year. Oil prices are flat, but natural gas has had a large drop off—down 30% from 12- months ago. The current $1.70 is down from over $7 two years ago.

Agricultural prices are off from last year’s levels, with wheat prices down 30%, corn down 37%, cotton down 13%, and milk down 10%. Cattle is the only bright spot, with prices up 16%. With corn prices down, input costs are down and dairy producers are back to breakeven, and cattle continue to be profitable. As always, farm income will be dependent on moisture prospects.


Economic Pulse

Pulse Chart


Economic Components Current Month Last Month Last Year
Index* 192.00 211.00 211.60
       
Sales Tax Collections $ 10,118,939 $ 8,597,674 $ 10,669,805
Sales Tax Collection-YTD $ 18,716,614 $ 109,029,729 $ 18,819,279
       
New Vehicle Sales 572 517 665
Used Vehicle Sales 1,130 1,009 1,307
       
Airline Boardings 26,834 36,619 25,518
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax $ 635,669 $ 734,954 $ 627,889
       
Population - Corporate Amarillo 201,106 201,106 201,106
Employment - CLF 136,667 136,667 137,006
Unemployment Rate % 2.50 % 2.50 % 3.20
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) 133,215 133,215 132,628
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 129,000 129,000 126,900
Average Weekly Wages $ 1,109.50 $ 1,109.50 $ 980.00
       
Gas Meters 69,992 69,501 69,880
       
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates % 7.000 % 6.625 % 6.625
Building Permits Dollar Amount $ 12,311,107 $ 58,826,366 $ 17,017,397
Year to Date Permits $ 14,400,088 $ 1,253,416,215 $ 17,017,397
Residential Starts 46 43 17
Year To Date Starts 51 416 17
Median House Sold Price $ 236,800 $ 243,000 $ 235,000
       
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle 1 1 9
Oil Price Per Barrel $ 78.20 $ 72.68 $ 79.36
Natural Gas $ 1.70 $ 3.31 $ 2.44
Wheat Per Bushel $ 6.09 $ 6.35 $ 8.65
Fed Cattle Per CWT $ 182.00 $ 171.00 $ 158.00
Corn Per Bushel $ 4.33 $ 4.44 $ 6.85
Cotton (Cents Per Pound) $ 73.20 $ 72.40 $ 84.40
Milk $ 16.20 $ 16.00 $ 18.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions. 


Economic Pulse Charts


 


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2024 Economic Analysis

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2023 Economic Analysis

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