Amarillo’s economy is taking part in the recovery with higher retail and auto sales, increasing jobs numbers, and higher commodity prices.
Retail sales are up 5.75% from a year ago, with Sales Tax Collections up 4.6% year to date.
New Car Sales are up 26% and Used Car Sales are up 8%. Area Dealers say the low supply of new cars from the manufacturers is keeping demand and profits higher than expected. Used Car prices continue to get stronger.
The Employers Survey shows that we are up 2,564 jobs from a year ago, when the shutdowns were in effect. The Household Survey shows a decrease of 1,325 jobs than was reported a year ago. We think this is a result of higher unemployment checks from the government. Most Amarillo major businesses are reporting problems finding people to hire, a problem not experienced in over 30 years.
Lubbock’s Household Survey shows a decrease of 3,345 jobs. Midland / Odessa is down 8,472.
Construction numbers appear to be up, but the Amazon Warehouse on the east side of Amarillo is propping up these numbers. Building permits for April are down 52% compared to last April, with Housing Starts down 10% from a year ago.
Oil and Gas is a big story so far this year. Oil prices are up to $63 from $20 a year ago. Natural Gas prices are at $2.66, up 63% from last April.
Milk prices are up 17%. Input costs for Dairies are also up, so their margins will shrink in the short term.\
Wheat prices are up 50%. Corn prices are up 52% Cotton prices are up 19%.
We are going to closely monitor all price levels. Talking with our customers, along with commodity prices and interest rates, we believe that inflation is more pervasive than the Federal Reserve thinks.
Texas State, Cities, Counties and Airports are due to get a total of $88 Billion in Federal Stimulus funds. It will be interesting to see how it will be spent, and if it is spent efficiently; but it should slosh through the economy.
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Trends and Comparisons
These industries employment levels are:
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