Welcome, Guest
Please let us know how we can help.

Economic Analysis

March 2014

Big Picture observations on Amarillo’s economy center on slowing but still positive growth, higher commodity prices, and solid construction numbers. Amarillo’s economic pace slowed down in March as retail sales lagged, employment slowed and the drought hardened. Retail sales were down 2% from 12 months ago and year to date up only 3.6%.

The household survey shows there are 200 more people working in Amarillo than last year. While the Household survey (including part time) is down 100. Wages were up 2%, slightly higher than the 1% rate of inflation.

New car sales were up 3% and used car sales are up 5%. Airline boarding’s finally turned positive compared to 12 months ago and the motel tax is up 16%.

Building permits are up with roofing still 1/3 of the total, and $5 million in commercial and $1.5 million in office. Residential starts are up 37% even as mortgage rates are nearly a full point higher than last year.

Crops will be hurt by the lack of rainfall. Wheat is expected to have another bad spring and prices are down 4% from 2013. Cotton prices are flat with last year and peanuts might replace some cotton planting as it brings higher yields. Corn prices are down 38%, which will benefit area dairies and feedyards. Beef and Dairy are both doing very well with Milk prices up 24% and fat cattle up 13%.

A bright spot for the Panhandle is the run up in Natural Gas prices. They were over $6 for a week (which a few years ago was an impossible thought) and that is up 67% from last year and the average is up $1 from last year at $4.60.

Oil prices are up 12%. There are 71 drilling rigs in the Panhandle which is 1 higher than last year.

Amarillo’s Leading Economic Index is sharply negative for this month (which probably off sets last month’s big jump). Thus the last 3 months are about flat which implies four months from now will bump along at the same levels as we are seeing now.

March 2014Current MonthLast MonthLast Year

Index*

220.68

252.71

210.00

Sales Tax Collections

$4,060,168

$8,298,489

$4,125,800

Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$18,341,345

$8,298,498

$17,704,085

New Vehicle Sales

970

1,345

 937

Used Vehicle Sales

3,010

2,732

2,860

Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)

19,912

17,910

19,234

Airline Boardings

26,440

26,942

25,772

Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$339,620

$403,574

$345,312

Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

Employment - CLF

133,356

135,441

137,200

Unemployment Rate

4.20%

4.00%

4.10%

Total Workers Employed

127,763

130,038

127,900

Average Weekly Wages

$757.15

$725.93

$742.55

Gas

68,987

68,760

67,426

Water Connection

68,824

68,859

68,321

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

4.63%

4.50%

3.70%

Building Permits Dollar Amount

$28,765,693

$80,979,036

$16,315,939

Year to Date Permits

$109,745,729

$80,979,036

$37,703,203

Residential Starts

37

48

27

Year To Date Starts

85

48

70

Median House Sold Price

$146,900

$142,900

$138,000

Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

71

73

70

Oil Price Per Barrel

$99.43

$92.75

$88.64

Natural Gas

$6.15

$5.18

$3.68

Wheat Per Bushel

$6.64

$6.25

$6.93

Fed Cattle Per CWT

$145.00

$143.00

$128.00

Corn Per Bushel

$4.73

$4.52

$7.65

Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$76.70

$76.00

$76.87

Milk

$22.00

$21.40

$17.76

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

Personalization Settings

x

Welcome

Amarillo National Bank would like to personalize your banking experience. Please enter your first name below.

This level of personalization will not lead to the sale of your name or leak your identity. The information you provide will only be stored on your computer and will not be transferred to the web server.

Please do not remind again