Economic Analysis

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December 2018

Amarillo’s economy had a good month in November, but there are signs of concern on the horizon.

Most consumer categories were up about 5% from a year ago, with retail sales up 5% (YTD up 4%), and New Cars up 5%. Airline Boardings are up 6% and Hotel/Motel Tax up 6%.  Good consumer outlook has kept these strong this Fall. 

Workers employed are up 1,400 jobs in the Employer’s Survey, with the largest gains in oil field, construction and health care.  Household Survey shows an adjusted gain of 2,500, with unemployment down to 2.5%. Amarillo wages are up 4% from a year ago, with the Amarillo CPI up about 3%.

Lubbock’s Household Survey was up 4,100 jobs for an unemployment rate of 2.7%. Midland and Odessa are up 6,800, with unemployment of 2.3% 

Housing in Amarillo has slowed, as mortgage rates remain about 5%.  November Residential starts are down 40% from a year ago, but still up 15% YTD.  Median sales price is down 3%. Total permits for November were flat, with YTD still up 10%. 

Oil is turning negative, as prices dropped from $70 to $48. Natural Gas prices had spiked to $4.50, but are back down toward $3.00. Natural Gas liquid prices had been climbing until the recent the drop in oil, so their decline helped bring the natural gas prices down towards more normal levels. There are still 19 rigs working in the Panhandle, up one from a year ago. 

Cattle prices are up 1% from a year ago, and about breaking even versus losing $25 per head a year ago.  Dairies are operating at a break-even, with milk prices of $14.50.

Wheat prices are up 30% and corn is up 7%. Both will need more moisture than we got last year, but are off to a good start.  The South Plains got all of their cotton cut before last week’s snow storm and prices are up 6% from last year. 

 

Amarillo

Lubbock

Sales Tax Collections YTD

Change in 12 months

$77,261,171

4%

$71,251,301

5.4%

Airline Boardings

Change in 12 months

31,914

6%

47,560

8%

Workers Employed Household Survey

 Change in 12 months

130,700

+1,400

161,400

+6,200

Employers Survey

Change in 12 months

123,200

no change

153,500

+4,300

Building Permits YTD

Change in 12 months

454,260,915

10%

505,034,212

-39%

Housing Starts Monthly

Change in 12 months

23

-39%

78

-27%

Housing Starts YTD

Change in 12 months

505

15%

1,214

-17%

 December 2018

Current Month 

Last Month 

 Last Year

 Index*

197.00

212.51

180.00

 Sales Tax Collections

$5,961,916

$7,082,897

$5,652,937

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$77,261,171

$71,299,255

$74,177,530

 New Vehicle Sales

808

1,002

769

 Used Vehicle Sales

2,441

3,060

2,465

 Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)

14,495

18,853

14,847

 Airline Boardings

31,914

29,741

29,971

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$563,794

$546,033

$533,999

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

134,100

133,500

132,600

 Unemployment Rate

2.50%

2.50%

2.60%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

130,700

130,100

129,300

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

123,200

122,600

123,200

 Average Weekly Wages

$898.78

$898.78

$861.39

 Gas

63,259

63,259

62,729

 Water Connection

70,951

71,510

70,834

 Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

5.000%

5.250%

4.25%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$31,588,354

$56,473,046

$32,850,731

 Year to Date Permits

$454,260,915

$422,679,561

$412,029,388

 Residential Starts

23

46

38

 Year To Date Starts

505

482

438

 Median House Sold Price

$154,900

$172,000

$159,000

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

19

25

18

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$60.77

$71.34

$51.25

 Natural Gas

$3.55

$3.16

$3.10

 Wheat Per Bushel

$4.88

$4.88

$3.79

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$118.73

$114.13

$117.03

 Corn Per Bushel

$3.88

$3.88

$3.63

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$72.30

$71.10

$66.80

Milk

$14.50

$15.00

$15.50

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

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