March 2026
The overall economy in the Panhandle has some bright spots.
High commodity prices and higher prices should hurt individuals, but data center activity building and home building are boosting activity.
Retail Sales are up 12% from 12 months ago. Year to Date Sales are up 7%. Airline Boardings are up 5% and the Hotel/Motel Tax Collections are up 24% due to data center rentals and higher auto travel. We feel that the larger tax refunds will go towards debt and help out individuals over the next 6 months.
We have to wait until April to get updated job reports. Last Fall's Government Shutdown still gets the blame for the interruption in data.
Building permits are up 16%, driven by commercial building. Mortgage Rates are lower than a year ago at 6.13%. There are fewer residential starts than 12 months ago, and Year to Date Starts are also slightly 5% lower. Home prices are up 8% from last March.
Grain and Cotton prices are similar to last year- wheat is at $5.98 and corn is at $4.50. The lack of moisture might mean no wheat crop this year.
The Cattle Market stays high with Fat Cattle at $235, up 18% from 12 months ago. The worker strike at a Colorado packing plant will cause a backlog of cattle coming out the Feedyards. This could hurt Fat Cattle prices in the short term. Area Dairies are profitable with milk prices up 7% from the beginning of the year.
The Middle East fighting has pushed Oil over $100 for a few days over the last 3 weeks. This is good for Producers, who will take their profits to pay down debt or expand drilling. Any long-term price shock will hit consumers at the gas pump and across many other products. We will watch the impact on prices through the Summer. Natural Gas prices are over $3 which is very good for the Panhandle economy.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index (Base Jan. 88 @ 100) | 220.70 | 206.00 | 216.30 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 8,359,548 | $ 12,113,063 | $ 7,435,512 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 29,236,084 | $ 20,876,536 | $ 27,227,358 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 642 | 765 | 656 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,443 | 1,455 | 1,511 |
| Airline Boardings | 27,935 | 25,539 | 26,522 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 714,495 | $ 826,585 | $ 578,127 |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 201,106 | 201,106 | 201,106 |
| Employment - CLF | – | 141,183 | 140,643 |
| Unemployment Rate | % – | % 2.80 | % 3.30 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | – | 137,228 | 135,973 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | – | 132,700 | 130,400 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,071.00 | $ 1,071.00 | $ 1,071.00 |
| Gas Meters | 70,012 | 70,087 | 70,210 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 6.125 | % 6.000 | % 6.875 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 64,395,791 | $ 38,803,260 | $ 55,151,370 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 106,395,491 | $ 95,365,180 | $ 95,161,031 |
| Residential Starts | 34 | 37 | 40 |
| Year To Date Starts | 73 | 52 | 77 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 261,440 | $ 268,000 | $ 242,120 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 94.00 | $ 62.32 | $ 67.61 |
| Natural Gas | $ 3.07 | $ 3.03 | $ 3.99 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 5.98 | $ 5.42 | $ 6.61 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 235.00 | $ 243.00 | $ 199.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.50 | $ 4.30 | $ 4.43 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 66.82 | $ 63.03 | $ 61.90 |
| Milk | $ 16.18 | $ 15.06 | $ 18.45 |
Prepare for the majestic dance of disclaimers!
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2026 Economic Analysis
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2025 Economic Analysis
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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