Amarillo Economic Analysis

Slow, steady growth continues in Amarillo, led by continued better employment numbers.

Retail Sales are only up 1.5%, which is less than the rate of inflation, bringing the YTD to 2.6%. Some businesses report a drop in sales and customers due to fears of ICE raids. New Vehicles are up 5% and Used sales are up 9%.

Tourism is up moderately, as Airline Boardings growth has returned, with a 5% increase. Motel Tax is up 3%.

The job market continues to look good, with 2,500 more people working in the Employer's Survey. The Household Survey is up 3,150. Wages are up 4% from last year, and the overall job market continues good, with some shortages among lower paid jobs. Plans continue for the giant Al project east of Amarillo that should give construction a boost when it starts about a year from now.

Building Permits are off for the month 50%, but up 9% YTD. Housing is lower, with 35 starts, down from 45 a year ago, and YTD at 164 is down 30% from the 235 last year. Median House Price is up $3,800.

Drilling activity has stopped with zero rigs operating in the Panhandle, but existing oil production is benefitting from higher oil and natural gas prices. Both up a third from several months ago.

Rains have benefitted farmers, and the wheat crop being cut looks to be an economic boost, with prices firming from last month, but down 9% from last year. Yields should be much better. Corn prices are flat, and cotton is up a little, but 21% below last year's price levels.

Cattle continue to be profitable, with Fat Cattle prices up 20% and good grass for ranchers at the start of the summer. Milk prices are steady, and area Dairies report profits.