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Economic Analysis

June 2015

No strengthening is seen Amarillo’s economy even with higher retail sales and record rainfall.

Retail sales were up 2.7% for the month and 3.2% year to date. Lubbock is up 4.7% for the month and 5.7% year to date. Midland/Odessa is down 8% for the month but up slightly from 12 months ago.

New car sales are down 10% and Used Car sales are down 26%. Our dealer customers blame the weekend rains of the last month.

Employment is mixed; The Employers Survey shows Amarillo up 1,300 jobs from 12 months ago (Lubbock is up 2,200 and Midland/ Odessa is up 10,300). The Household Survey (which includes a lot of part time jobs) is down 700 in Amarillo (down 300 in Lubbock but up 6,800 for Midland/ Odessa). The downturn in Midland/ Odessa shows up in a decline of 700 jobs in the last month.

Construction permits are down 40% from 12 months ago as commercial starts have slowed. Residential starts are up to 39 compared to 19 for 12 months ago. Year to date starts are 158 (vs. 208 last year). This drop is due to higher prices, higher mortgage rates, and slow job growth.

Cotton prices are up 4% from a month ago but still down 23% from a year ago. Farmers reported difficulty in getting it planted due to the ground moisture. Wheat is being cut and prices are down 37% from a year ago. Corn should have a good crop, but prices also are down 26%.

Fat cattle prices are 5% higher than last year, but Feedyards are reporting breakeven and even some losses. Ranchers are rebuilding herds by not selling heifers.

Dairies are profitable, but not as much as last year since milk prices are down 34%.

Oil and gas continue to be weak with only 18 rigs running (vs. 64 last year). Prices are about half last year’s level so our economy is being pulled down by much lower royalty payments, less oil field jobs, and much less overtime for those still working.

  

June 2015Current MonthLast MonthLast Year

Index*

  196.10

  201.40

 236.40

Sales Tax Collections

$6,179,240

$6,318,355

$6,031,694

Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$37,708,938

$30,529,698

$36,545,809

New Vehicle Sales

907

1,448

1,156

Used Vehicle Sales

3,069

3,306

3,405

Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)

21,304

19,843

28,833

Airline Boardings

27,130

26,550

32,646

Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$502,813

$547,057

$445,465

Population - Corporate Amarillo

 191,514

191,514

191,514

Employment - CLF

131,000

129,938

132,600

Unemployment Rate

2.90%

2.70%

3.60%

Total Workers Employed

127,100

126,400

127,800

Average Weekly Wages

$779.35

$779.35

$800.51

Gas

62,446

62,709

68,443

Water Connection

69,367

69,186

68,987

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

4.25%

3.88%

4.38%

Building Permits Dollar Amount

$22,203,936

$48,206,900

$37,605,880

Year to Date Permits

$207,458,799

$185,347,873

$247,525,797

Residential Starts

39

34

19

Year To Date Starts

158

120

203

Median House Sold Price

$160,000

$154,000

$140,000

Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

18

19

63

Oil Price Per Barrel

$55.55

$53.27

$102.09

Natural Gas

$3.01

$2.53

$4.66

Wheat Per Bushel

$4.87

$5.00

$7.74

Fed Cattle Per CWT

$154.00

$161.00

$147.00

Corn Per Bushel

$3.91

$4.00

$5.30

Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$62.40

$59.90

$80.70

Milk

$15.00

$15.75

$22.75

 


 

 

*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

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