Economic Analysis

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April 2018

Flat jobs numbers and steady commodity prices keep Amarillo’s economy level with a month ago.

April’s employment numbers show not much growth. Area jobs shows a gain of 900 jobs from a year ago. Gains in manufacturing (+500), Construction (+200) and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (+400) are offset by lower numbers of jobs in Professional (-300) and Education & Health (-200). The Household Survey shows an adjusted gain of 2,000 from a year ago, but that number might be a little high. The unadjusted Household number is 500 more jobs.

Retail sales are up from 2017. For the month of February, sales are up 1% from a year ago and up 2% year to date. New car sales are mostly flat with a year ago, and used car sales are down 7%.

Area travel is mixed, as Airline Boardings are up 1% from 2017 and the Hotel/Motel Tax collections are down 3%.

Real estate is having a good year.  Through March, Amarillo has seen 830 houses sold compared to 709 a year ago.  Residential starts for April (42) are flat with a year ago, and year to date starts (151) are up 37% from last year.  Mortgage rates are about 50 basis points higher than they were a year ago.

Commercial construction is down from a year ago, but year to date numbers are ahead with the Downtown Ballpark, new apartments on Amarillo Boulevard, and Senior Living space at Town Square.

Energy commodities are hit and miss with Oil above $60 and Natural Gas at $2.78. Drilling activity in the Panhandle is level with a year ago.

Cattle are profitable with Fat Cattle prices at $117.35, down from last year, but above breakeven (about $110). Dairies are still seeing small profits, with Milk prices at $14.25, which is right above breakeven.

Ag commodities are holding steady, but the lack of moisture has area farmers preparing for a dry summer. Corn is up 10%. Cotton is down 1%. Wheat is up 35%.

 April 2018

Current Month 

Last Month 

 Last Year

 Index*

198.60

200.30

191.32

 Sales Tax Collections

$5,479,156

$5,513,234

$5,408,823

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$25,054,584

$19,575,428

$24,504,493

 New Vehicle Sales

977

678

1,001

 Used Vehicle Sales

3,882

2,678

4,182

 Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)

25,084

16,393

24,959

 Airline Boardings

24,023

24,274

22,624

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$424,851

$437,327

$438,445

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

133,400

133,100

133,700

 Unemployment Rate

 3.00%

2.90%

3.50%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

129,500

129,200

129,000

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

120,300

120,300

121,700

 Average Weekly Wages

$861.39

$861.39

$801.50

 Gas

63,277

62,923

62,992

 Water Connection

70,970

70,540

70,408

 Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

4.75%

4.75%

4.38%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$78,342,836

$78,342,836

$33,328,432

 Year to Date Permits

$147,224,541

$123,197,265

$132,943,435

 Residential Starts

42

46

40

 Year To Date Starts

151

109

110

 Median House Sold Price

$155,000

$158,000

$147,000

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

20

20

18

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$60.96

$57.80

$44.35

 Natural Gas

$2.78

$2.60

$2.98

 Wheat Per Bushel

$4.69

$4.41

$3.47

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$117.35

$126.28

$ 125.83

 Corn Per Bushel

$4.04

$3.98

$3.66

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$67.70

$68.70

$68.60

Milk

$14.25

$14.00

$14.75

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

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