Economic Analysis | Amarillo National Bank

Economic Analysis

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April 2020

Amarillo’s economy is taking part in the recovery with higher retail and auto sales, increasing jobs numbers, and higher commodity prices.

Retail sales are up 5.75% from a year ago, with Sales Tax Collections up 4.6% year to date.

New Car Sales are up 26% and Used Car Sales are up 8%. Area Dealers say the low supply of new cars from the manufacturers is keeping demand and profits higher than expected. Used Car prices continue to get stronger.

The Employers Survey shows that we are up 2,564 jobs from a year ago, when the shutdowns were in effect. The Household Survey shows a decrease of 1,325 jobs than was reported a year ago. We think this is a result of higher unemployment checks from the government. Most Amarillo major businesses are reporting problems finding people to hire, a problem not experienced in over 30 years.

Lubbock’s Household Survey shows a decrease of 3,345 jobs. Midland / Odessa is down 8,472.

Construction numbers appear to be up, but the Amazon Warehouse on the east side of Amarillo is propping up these numbers. Building permits for April are down 52% compared to last April, with Housing Starts down 10% from a year ago.

Oil and Gas is a big story so far this year. Oil prices are up to $63 from $20 a year ago. Natural Gas prices are at $2.66, up 63% from last April.
Cattle prices are up 15% from a year ago and Feedyards are profitable. Packing plants are reporting record profit margins as restaurants begin to take on full capacity.

Milk prices are up 17%. Input costs for Dairies are also up, so their margins will shrink in the short term.\

Wheat prices are up 50%. Corn prices are up 52% Cotton prices are up 19%.

We are going to closely monitor all price levels. Talking with our customers, along with commodity prices and interest rates, we believe that inflation is more pervasive than the Federal Reserve thinks.

Texas State, Cities, Counties and Airports are due to get a total of $88 Billion in Federal Stimulus funds. It will be interesting to see how it will be spent, and if it is spent efficiently; but it should slosh through the economy.

 

 April 2020

Current Month

Last Month

Last Year

 Index*

184.00

201.00

148.20

 Sales Tax Collections

$5,822,908

$6,393,339

$5,507,678

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$27,497,080

$21,674,172

$26,295,300

 New Vehicle Sales

722

489

575

 Used Vehicle Sales

1,980

1,248

1,838

 Airline Boardings

21,931

13,116

25,715

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$487,765

$672,696

$427,958

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

133,956

133,492

130,475

 Unemployment Rate

4.90%

5.10%

3.50%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

127,440

126,651

125,876

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

120,500

119,415

121,825

 Average Weekly Wages

$896.50

$896.50

$865.22

 Gas

70,029

69,533

69,640

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

3.375%

3.250%

3.125%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$21,125,470

$164,066,949

$43,821,543

 Year to Date Permits

$195,420,389

$17,294,919

$81,311,039

 Residential Starts

26

58

29

 Year To Date Starts

117

91

116

 Six Months Trailing

$262,320

$306,790

$120,484

 Median House Sold Price

$211,500

$200,000

$169,000

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

5

4

2

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$63.12

$65.61

$20.82

 Natural Gas

$2.66

$2.60

$1.63

 Wheat Per Bushel

$6.54

$6.70

$4.35

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$120.50

$113.95

$105.00

 Corn Per Bushel

$5.77

$5.60

$3.80

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$72.10

$16.00

$15.00

Milk

$17.59

$21.00

$19.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

Trends and Comparisons
April 2020

These industries employment levels are:

 

 Comparison (vs. 12 mos. ago) Amarillo   Lubbock  
  February March February March
Retail Sales (June) +8.7% +5.7% -3.9% +3% 
         
Airline Boardings +48% -14%    +34% 
Hotel Motel Tax +49% +14%   -59% 
         
Building Permits Month  ++940% -51% +3.8% +109% 
Housing Starts Month +1.75% -10% +18% +54%
Housing Start YTD +4.6% +.8% +28% -5%
         
Actuals        
  New Vehicle Sales 489 722 868 835
  Used Vehicle Sales 1,248 1,980 1,792 2,424
         
  Workers Employed        
    Household 126,591 127,440 154,565 155,280
    Employers 119,400 120,500 147,200 147,400
         
  Civil Labor Force 133,440 133,956 164,236 164,812
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