Economic Analysis

February 2014

Amarillo’s economy gained strength in February as retail sales and construction pushed our Pulse higher.

Retail sales for December are up 5% from a year ago. Over the same period, new car sales are up 10% and used car sales are up 12%.

Higher mortgage rates are keeping residential starts flat with last year. Median home prices are up 15% from last year.

School Additions and security projects were $20 million of the $80 million building permits. Fed Ex on East I-40 and apartments in West Amarillo added to the gain.

We remain dry and the crops are off to a bad start. Plus, wheat prices are down 14% from last winter and corn prices are down 38%.

Feed yards continue to recover and fat cattle prices are up 17%. Dairies are doing well with milk prices at $21.40, up 17% from last year.

Oil and gas remain strong with 73 drilling rigs in the Panhandle compared to 61 this time last year. Natural gas prices are up 64% from last year as the cold snaps continue across the country. Oil prices are flat at $91.

Our Leading Index is showing a huge gain this month due to construction and natural gas prices forecasting a strong spring. Employment numbers will be adjusted by the state next month, so we will see if this increase can be seen in workers employed.

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.