February 2024
Weakness showed in most of our categories for the Amarillo economy. Retail sales were down 5% from a year ago, bringing the 2-month YTD to flat.
Both New and Used vehicles sales were off 14%. Travel was the one bright spot, with Airline Boardings up 5% (continuing last year’s trend) and Motel taxes up 1%.
The state employment numbers are always recalculated in February and will be published March 8th.
Construction is the bright spot, even though mortgage rates are higher (7% vs 6.6% last year). Building Permits are off 27% from last year’s level, but construction in progress remains strong, especially in commercial properties, with our 6-month trailing being almost double last year’s. Even housing starts have rebounded with 46 versus only 17 twelve months ago.
Energy has slowed, with only one drilling rig operating versus 9 last year. Oil prices are flat, but natural gas has had a large drop off—down 30% from 12- months ago. The current $1.70 is down from over $7 two years ago.
Agricultural prices are off from last year’s levels, with wheat prices down 30%, corn down 37%, cotton down 13%, and milk down 10%. Cattle is the only bright spot, with prices up 16%. With corn prices down, input costs are down and dairy producers are back to breakeven, and cattle continue to be profitable. As always, farm income will be dependent on moisture prospects.
Economic Pulse
Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
---|---|---|---|
Index* | 192.00 | 211.00 | 211.60 |
Sales Tax Collections | $ 10,118,939 | $ 8,597,674 | $ 10,669,805 |
Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 18,716,614 | $ 109,029,729 | $ 18,819,279 |
New Vehicle Sales | 572 | 517 | 665 |
Used Vehicle Sales | 1,130 | 1,009 | 1,307 |
Airline Boardings | 26,834 | 36,619 | 25,518 |
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 635,669 | $ 734,954 | $ 627,889 |
Population - Corporate Amarillo | 201,106 | 201,106 | 201,106 |
Employment - CLF | 136,667 | 136,667 | 137,006 |
Unemployment Rate | % 2.50 | % 2.50 | % 3.20 |
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 133,215 | 133,215 | 132,628 |
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 129,000 | 129,000 | 126,900 |
Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,109.50 | $ 1,109.50 | $ 980.00 |
Gas Meters | 69,992 | 69,501 | 69,880 |
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 7.000 | % 6.625 | % 6.625 |
Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 12,311,107 | $ 58,826,366 | $ 17,017,397 |
Year to Date Permits | $ 14,400,088 | $ 1,253,416,215 | $ 17,017,397 |
Residential Starts | 46 | 43 | 17 |
Year To Date Starts | 51 | 416 | 17 |
Median House Sold Price | $ 236,800 | $ 243,000 | $ 235,000 |
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 1 | 1 | 9 |
Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 78.20 | $ 72.68 | $ 79.36 |
Natural Gas | $ 1.70 | $ 3.31 | $ 2.44 |
Wheat Per Bushel | $ 6.09 | $ 6.35 | $ 8.65 |
Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 182.00 | $ 171.00 | $ 158.00 |
Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.33 | $ 4.44 | $ 6.85 |
Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 73.20 | $ 72.40 | $ 84.40 |
Milk | $ 16.20 | $ 16.00 | $ 18.00 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2024 Economic Analysis
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2023 Economic Analysis
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