Economic Analysis |
July 2021The re-opening of the economy has hit full steam in Amarillo. Employment, retail sales, construction and commodity prices are all up from this time last year and level or up from 2 years ago. YTD Retail Sales are up 19% from 2020 and up 19% from 2019 Our Household Survey shows an increase of 4,800 jobs from a year ago and flat with 2 years ago. The Employers’ Survey also shows a gain of 4,800 over 2020 and up 300 over 2019. Many of our customers are still having a hard time filing job openings (3,000 job openings in Amarillo are 3X the normal level), but expect that to end as the government unemployment stimulus runs out. Wages are up 6% from a year ago. Construction continues its busy path, with Residential Starts up 16 for the year and Commercial benefitting from Amazon and the Tech Vet School. Interest Rates have increased and there is reason to think the housing markets momentum could slow down the 2nd half of 2021 due to less supply. There are now 7 drilling rigs in the Panhandle compared to none this time last year and 12 in 2019. Oil prices are up 70% to $69. Natural Gas Prices are up 110%. Cattle prices are up 22% from last Summer, but Feedyards are still seeing losses around $50 per head. Dairy margins improved a little bit, even with Milk prices down 17% from a year ago. The wheat crop is proving to be much better than expected, and may be the best in a decade, especially to the east. Corn prices are up, and yields look good, with help from good moisture. Input costs for farms have risen, but are offset by less irrigation cost for this year. The increase in corn prices is a boost to farm income, but will raise the cost of gain in the feedyards. Review of commodity prices over the last 2 years is interesting:
*Base-100, January 1988 This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Trends & Comparisons From Two Years Ago
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