Economic Analysis

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October 2018

Amarillo’s economy flattened out last month, as construction, housing and job growth have slowed down.

Last month’s Building Permits are down 42% from a year ago. There were 33% less Housing Starts in Amarillo compared to 12 months ago, as 30-year mortgage rates are at 5.25%. A year ago they were 4.13%. House prices are up around 8%.

The Employer’s Survey shows an adjusted increase of just 300 jobs compared to a year ago. The Household Survey says we have gained 500 jobs. Average Weekly Wages are up 4% from last year. Amarillo’s unemployment rate is 2.7%, and all of West Texas has a tight labor market.

Lubbock’s Household Survey is up 2,500 jobs and Midland/Odessa is up 7,100 (Midland alone is 94% of this growth).

Amarillo’s Retail sales are still higher than last year by 3.8% year to date. Monthly comparison shows a growth of 4.2% from 12 months ago. Car Sales are mixed, with New Cars sold flat with a year ago and Used Cars sold down 4% from a year ago.

Good recent rains will do wonders for the winter wheat, but might be negative for the cotton harvest.

Wheat prices are up 26%. Cotton prices are up 7%. Corn prices are up 3.5%.

Dairies are having a better 2nd half of the year, with prices close to $15. Low input costs and good operations will make area Dairies profitable for 2018. Cattle prices are flat with a year ago. Breakeven prices are close to $1,800 per head, and unhedged cattle are losing money.

 

Drilling rigs in the Panhandle have doubled over the last year, as oil prices are up 55%.  However, natural gas prices are flat, and over 2/3 of the royalty income in the Panhandle is gas.

 October 2018

Current Month 

Last Month 

 Last Year

 Index*

190.00

202.00

189.33

 Sales Tax Collections

$6,302,557

$6,147,921

$6,048,800

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$64,216,357

$57,913,800

$61,855,528

 New Vehicle Sales

1,032

1,240

1,029

 Used Vehicle Sales

2,668

3,577

2,800

 Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)

18,589

23,269

19,072

 Airline Boardings

30,941

33,260

28,164

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$678,284

$749,374

$610,855

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

132,200

132,200

131,900

 Unemployment Rate

2.70%

2.80%

2.70%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

128,800

128,400

128,300

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

121,300

121,100

121,000

 Average Weekly Wages

$898.78

$898.78

$861.39

 Gas

62,549

63,261

65,438

 Water Connection

71,003

71,701

70,231

 Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

5.250%

5.125%

4.13%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$24,008,727

$27,916,280

$42,775,695

 Year to Date Permits

$366,406,514

$343,144,293

$347,050,693

 Residential Starts

36

49

54

 Year To Date Starts

436

401

369

 Median House Sold Price

$177,000

$170,000

$164,000

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

26

25

13

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$68.71

$67.04

$44.19

 Natural Gas

$2.81

$2.97

$2.88

 Wheat Per Bushel

$4.95

$5.40

$3.93

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$110.99

$107.85

$110.00

 Corn Per Bushel

$3.82

$3.83

$3.69

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$69.70

$74.10

$64.70

Milk

$15.00

$14.00

$16.25

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

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