Economic Analysis

February 2019

Amarillo’s economy slowed down in February, with less retail sales and lower commodity prices.

Compared to 12 months ago, retail sales were down 6%. Year to Date sales are down 3%. New car sales are up 33%, as financing has become very competitive. Used car sales are up 3%.

Wages are reporting being down 3%. We think this is due to the Government Shutdown last month. We will watch this number, as all indications continue to show a tight job market.

Mortgage rates are under 5% and residential construction has slowed. There were 30 housing starts last month, which is down 50% from a year ago.

Lower energy commodity prices and continued operational problems at the natural gas gathering plant have slowed down drilling activity in the Panhandle. There are 11 drilling rigs operating, compared to 17 a year ago. Natural Gas prices are under $3 today and Oil has rebounded a little to the mid $50’s.

Feedyards and Dairies are having a rough start to 2019. Some pens are making money in Feedyards, but the majority are just breaking even with prices flat from last year. Dairy’s margins remain squeezed with lower milk prices ($13.75).

Planting in 2019 should mirror last year. Wheat is limping along, but there are some cattle currently turned out on certain wheat fields.

February is the month that Texas adjusts their employment numbers, so we will have a full report in next month’s Pulse.

February 2019	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index^*	178.58	188.00	201.17
Sales Tax Collections	$7,623,833	$6,061,178	$8,107,235
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$13,685,011	$83,322,350	$14,062,193
New Vehicle Sales	1,020	905	767
Used Vehicle Sales	2,832	2,043	2,728
Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)	19,705	16,958	16,751
Airline Boardings	31,498	32,260	30,969
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$494,671	$525,807	$499,153
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	134,000	134,000	131,300
Unemployment Rate	2.60%	2.60%	2.80%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	130,600	130,600	127,600
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	123,300	123,300	119,400
Average Weekly Wages	$838.53	$898.78	$861.39
Gas	63,562	62,959	63,141
Water Connection	71,261	70,548	70,847
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	4.750%	4.875%	4.750%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$23,827,023	$15,197,392	$44,854,429
Year to Date Permits	$23,827,023	$469,458,308	$44,854,429
Residential Starts	30	28	63
Year To Date Starts	30	533	63
Median House Sold Price	$170,000	$167,000	$170,000
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	11	19	17
Oil Price Per Barrel	$54.02	$45.51	$61.73
Natural Gas	$3.32	$3.09	$3.20
Wheat Per Bushel	$4.86	$4.85	$4.01
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$124.98	$123.85	$125.92
Corn Per Bushel	$3.95	$4.00	$3.72
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$66.18	$72.66	$68.40
Milk	$13.75	$14.00	$13.80

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.