September 2024
Amarillo's economy has leveled out. Retail sales are higher, more people are working, and construction has held steady.
Retail sales for the month are up 5.7% compared to 12 months ago bringing year to date Sales up 4.3%. New Car Sales are up 29% and Used Car Sales are up 6% from this time in 2023.
The Hotel/Motel Tax Collections are up 51% from last September, reflecting a catch up in delinquent tax collecting. A slow month was boosted by the filming of Yellowstone, which had early August running ahead for 2 weeks. Airline Boardings had a good August: up 6%-best of the year. Actual taxes are down .5%.
There are just under 1,900 more people working than there were 12 months ago in the Household Survey. The Employers Survey shows there are 1,700 more people working than last September. State numbers show wages down 7%, as some wage jobs were lost and replaced with more entry level wages.
Mortgage Rates have gone down 100 basis points, and our bank is seeing more activity. There was 14 more Residential Starts this month than the same month last year. Year to Date Residential Starts are flat with a year ago. House prices are up 2% from last year. Total Building Permits were down 36% from 12 months ago, but year to date construction is up 31% from a year ago.
There are only 2 active drilling rigs in the Panhandle, with low natural gas prices- down 17% from last year to $2.28. Oil is at $71.85, down 20% from September 2023.
The corn harvest is way under, but yields are uncertain. Prices are down 11% from last year. The cotton crop is going to be below average, but prices are up 14%. Grazing wheat is being planted this month and prices are level with last year.
The Cattle market remains strong. Costs of gain are favorable with low corn prices. Cattle prices are down 2% from last year, but still profitable.
Dairies are having a great end to the year. Class Ill milk prices, (which area Dairies get their pricing from) are $23, up from $16 last winter.
Dairies will be profitable at these price levels, which will mitigate the breakevens and losses from the beginning of the year.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index* | 218.71 | 222.13 | 226.43 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 8,753,732 | $ 9,625,208 | $ 8,278,179 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 78,103,817 | $ 69,350,085 | $ 74,860,964 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 848 | 614 | 655 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,642 | 1,193 | 1,359 |
| Airline Boardings | 35,653 | 39,530 | 33,626 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 943,090 | $ 914,955 | $ 625,944 |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 201,106 | 201,106 | 201,106 |
| Employment - CLF | 138,720 | 138,603 | 138,151 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 3.40 | % 3.40 | % 3.60 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 134,015 | 133,971 | 133,598 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 127,500 | 127,117 | 127,755 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,030.00 | $ 1,030.00 | $ 1,109.50 |
| Gas Meters | 69,402 | 69,692 | 69,842 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 6.125 | % 6.500 | % 7.250 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 42,478,149 | $ 59,829,241 | $ 66,022,751 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 289,339,972 | $ 249,998,245 | $ 221,181,297 |
| Residential Starts | 64 | 41 | 50 |
| Year To Date Starts | 368 | 310 | 361 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 262,000 | $ 247,000 | $ 257,000 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 71.61 | $ 77.83 | $ 89.93 |
| Natural Gas | $ 2.28 | $ 2.21 | $ 2.76 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 6.69 | $ 6.31 | $ 6.81 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 183.40 | $ 192.98 | $ 187.87 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.10 | $ 3.78 | $ 4.63 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 83.90 | $ 81.90 | $ 73.30 |
| Milk | $ 23.00 | $ 21.25 | $ 17.75 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
{beginAccordion h3}
2024 Economic Analysis
{endAccordion}
{beginAccordion h3}
2023 Economic Analysis
{endAccordion}