Amarillo Economic Analysis

Amarillo's economy is steady with more construction even as we see stagnant retail sales, flat car sales, less housing activity, and some slower job growth.

Building permits are showing a large number with the new beef packing plant showing up on the rolls. Other construction is an apartment complex, a fire station, a new bank and other retail stores. Year to Date Building Permits are double where they were last year.

Housing has slowed even as realtors tell us that a wave of people are moving here due to data center construction. Housing starts are down 39% and year to date starts are down 19%. House prices are down 5% from a year ago.

Retail sales are up 3% from 12 months ago and year to date sales are up 2.6%. New Car Sales are down 3% and Used Car Sales are down 1%.

There are 971 more people working in the Employers Survey and only 390 more people working in the Household Survey. We are skeptical of the Household Survey as many workers are scared to report due to the threat of ICE raids.

Wages are up 4% from 12 months ago.

There is no drilling activity in the Panhandle. Oil Prices are down 10% from 12 months ago to $64.56. Natural Gas prices are up 37% from this time last year.

Cattle continues its historic run. Inventory levels for the United States are at their lowest since 1951. Ranchers' profits could be up as much as 35% this year due to higher prices they receive and lower feeding costs due to our wonderful moisture this year. Cattle on feed are still profitable, but because most are hedged, some of those profits are going toward margin calls.

Area Dairies are seeing squeezed margins because milk prices are down 23% from last September. Dairies though are making money on one day old angus cross calves that will sell for $1,000 to $1,300 each.

Corn prices are up 4% from 12 months ago and will be cut in the next month. Cotton is down 33% and we don't expect much, if any, north of Lubbock. Wheat prices are down 25% from last September.