November 2023
Amarillo’s economy continues its flattening pace in most categories. Job growth is positive, but slower, and retail sales are flat. Commercial construction is the main positive, and commodities have flattened out at levels lower than last year.
Retail sales are basically flat for the month and year-to-date, as consumers adapt to higher prices by buying less.
New Car Sales are down 2% and Used Car Sales are down 5%. Higher interest rates and more income going to housing and utilities seem to be the main factor on less vehicle sales.
Airline boardings continue strong at 5%, but motel occupancy and room rates are off slightly.
1,400 more people are working according to the Household Survey and 1,000 in the Employer’s Survey, with unemployment rates at last year’s 2.9%. The job growth pace is lower than in the past, but still positive.
Commercial construction leads the 57% increase in building permits, since residential starts are off 20% from last year’s levels. Median house sold price was up 11% compared to 12 months ago. Commercial construction continues strong, with a new building for a trailer sales company, a new building for a doctor’s group, and a new Pre-K school on Hillside.
Energy softened, with only 3 drilling rigs in the Panhandle versus 12 last year. The oil price is down 10% from last month and an additional 5% by the middle of November. Natural gas prices remain firm, but still half of last year’s level.
Cattle boomed over the summer, but prices have come back down quickly. Prices are still up 21% from a year ago. We have heard of some close outs of $300 per head, but most profits are between $120 and $130 per head. Dairies have seen some relief from lower input costs, mostly corn, and are operating at breakeven, even though milk prices are down 22% from a year ago, but up slightly from last month.
It hasn’t rained since Summer and wheat is not looking good, plus prices are down 22% from last November. Corn had a decent crop due to some early moisture, but prices are down 30% from a year ago. Cotton is being cut now and prices are down 11%.
The rate of inflation slowed because of the sharp drop in gasoline prices. Also, grocery costs are flattening, as there are actually price decreases of about 5% in dry groceries. Inflation has moved all prices to higher levels, and businesses are holding prices at these higher levels. The local inflation rate is about 3.5-4% rate of increase.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index* | 220.00 | 218.73 | 215.40 |
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 9,003,846 | $ 8,761,516 | $ 9,045,338 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 92,626,328 | $ 83,622,481 | $ 92,050,142 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 632 | 747 | 647 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,368 | 1,683 | 1,445 |
| Airline Boardings | 36,387 | 34,278 | 34,690 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 752,948 | $ 832,924 | |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 201,106 | 201,106 | 199,747 |
| Employment - CLF | 136,998 | 137,435 | 135,454 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 2.90 | % 3.10 | % 2.90 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 132,993 | 133,110 | 131,507 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 128,100 | 127,331 | 127,075 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,109.50 | $ 1,109.50 | $ 1,088.50 |
| Gas Meters | 69,180 | 69,374 | 69,541 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 7.375 | % 8.000 | % 6.500 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 63,528,898 | $ 53,827,904 | $ 4,474,694 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 353,693,463 | $ 305,150,571 | $ 225,615,731 |
| Residential Starts | 50 | 24 | 62 |
| Year To Date Starts | 435 | 385 | 573 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 262,000 | $ 257,000 | $ 235,500 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 77.58 | $ 83.49 | $ 86.82 |
| Natural Gas | $ 3.19 | $ 3.38 | $ 6.08 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 6.75 | $ 6.79 | $ 8.70 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 181.00 | $ 184.51 | $ 150.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.64 | $ 4.94 | $ 6.67 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 76.30 | $ 76.40 | $ 85.90 |
| Milk | $ 16.84 | $ 16.75 | $ 21.50 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2023 Economic Analysis
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