Amarillo Economic Analysis

Amarillo’s economy ended the year in a fairly good position, with jumps in retail sales and housing, while other activities stayed stable.

Sales tax collections are up 11.5% from last year (with some of this possibly an audit catch up). YTD sales are up 4.4%. New and Used vehicle sales are about flat, with auto dealers reporting less business than last year.

Motel collections remain strong, with a 7.6% jump, but Airline Boardings have turned negative the last two months, down 2%. We are waiting for the employment numbers from the state and federal government. Our categories are probably in good shape; however, the January lay off of 1,700 workers at Tyson will have a negative impact next year.

Mortgage rates have declined from 6.9% to 6%, and monthly housing starts are double what they were last year, bringing the YTD slightly below 2024. Commercial construction was strong at the first of the year, but is slowing in the fourth quarter. Prices of houses that sold are up almost 6%.

The energy sector is mixed, with a sharp drop in the price of oil, but area producers that have natural gas are benefiting from the 30% increase in prices. There is only one drilling rig operating.

Commodity prices are flat to down for farmers, with wheat and cotton off about 15%, while corn is flat. Cattle will continue to have a fine year, with prices up 20%. Milk prices are down 15%, but dairies have been able to make a profit, since they usually raise their own cattle.

Our Forecast will be out soon detailing each of these categories.