September 2023
Flattening data last month shows not much growth in most categories of Amarillo's economy. Employment is up slightly, and only a slight increase in retail sales and flattening housing starts. Commodity prices are off about 30%, except for cattle that are up 32%.
Retail Sales in Amarillo were up 2.5% from last year's level for the month, with the YTD number being flat (after last month's state audit changes). New vehicle sales were up 7%, but used were down 13%. Used vehicle prices are also off about 13%.
Travel has slowed, with Airline Boardings only up 4%, but Motel Collections are down 35% (again reflecting the audit). Room rates and occupancy are off slightly throughout the city.
The Household Survey reports workers employed being up 1,250, while the employers survey is up only 500. These are the lowest levels of the year, and the household may include more part-time workers. Wages are shown to be up only 2%, but this under represents most wage levels. Owens Corning did notify that they will be laying off 200 people in the coming months.
Building Permits have doubled from last year to bring the YTD increase to 6.5%. This increase was centered on the new Buc-ees location, Amarillo High School renovation, Amarillo National Bank remodeling, plus a new Medical Center branch. Residential starts were down 7% (and down 23% YTD). Median house price is up 4%, but overall home sales have slowed due to higher rates.
Oil prices are on the rise. Rigs in the Panhandle have dropped to 3 from 8 last year. Natural Gas prices are down by 67%. The commodity sector is mixed, with cattle doing very well, up 32%, and dairies moving back to breakeven, while milk prices are down 12%. Crops are off, with wheat prices down 25%, corn down 31% and cotton down 20%.
Economic Pulse
| Economic Components | Current Month | Last Month | Last Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Tax Collections | $ 8,278,179 | $ 7,458,233 | $ 8,078,158 |
| Sales Tax Collection-YTD | $ 74,860,964 | $ 66,582,784 | $ 74,668,439 |
| New Vehicle Sales | 655 | 708 | 610 |
| Used Vehicle Sales | 1,359 | 1,479 | 1,569 |
| Airline Boardings | 33,626 | 38,219 | 32,388 |
| Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax | $ 625,944 | $ 996,389 | $ 977,146 |
| Population - Corporate Amarillo | 201,106 | 201,106 | 199,747 |
| Employment - CLF | 137,008 | 137,347 | 135,052 |
| Unemployment Rate | % 3.60 | % 3.60 | % 3.00 |
| Total Workers Employed (Household Survey) | 132,121 | 132,490 | 130,976 |
| Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) | 125,800 | 126,177 | 125,296 |
| Average Weekly Wages | $ 1,109.50 | $ 1,109.50 | $ 1,088.50 |
| Gas | 69,842 | 69,616 | 68,712 |
| Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates | % 7.250 | % 7.250 | % 6.500 |
| Building Permits Dollar Amount | $ 66,022,751 | $ 46,795,777 | $ 31,650,333 |
| Year to Date Permits | $ 221,181,297 | $ 152,247,957 | $ 207,781,540 |
| Residential Starts | 50 | 25 | 54 |
| Year To Date Starts | 361 | 311 | 470 |
| Median House Sold Price | $ 257,000 | $ 250,000 | $ 248,000 |
| Drilling Rigs In Panhandle | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Oil Price Per Barrel | $ 89.93 | $ 82.47 | $ 85.08 |
| Natural Gas | $ 2.76 | $ 2.79 | $ 8.27 |
| Wheat Per Bushel | $ 6.81 | $ 7.07 | $ 9.05 |
| Fed Cattle Per CWT | $ 187.87 | $ 183.06 | $ 142.00 |
| Corn Per Bushel | $ 4.63 | $ 4.76 | $ 6.78 |
| Cotton (Cents Per Pound) | $ 73.30 | $ 75.00 | $ 91.30 |
| Milk | $1 7.75 | $ 17.31 | $ 20.25 |
| Index* | 226.43 | 212.42 | 229.80 |
*Base-100, January 1988
This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.
Economic Pulse Charts
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2023 Economic Analysis
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