Economic Analysis

January 2018

2018 has started off mixed for Amarillo’s economy, as a strong labor environment is offset by drought conditions and a slowdown in construction.

There are more people working in Amarillo, and we have the 2nd lowest unemployment rate in Texas, just barely behind Midland. The Household Survey shows we have 2,000 more people working than a year ago, and the Employers’ Survey shows an increase of 1,800. Lubbock is up 2,100 and 1,500 in the same surveys, and Midland/Odessa is up 4,200 and 3,800 as Permian activity is scorching.

Retail Sales are up for the month compared to a year ago for the first time in 7 months. New Car Sales are down 62%, and Used Car Sales are down 9%.

Airline Boardings are flat and hovering around 30,000 per month. The Hotel / Motel tax is up 8%.

Mortgage Rates are higher, with the 30-year at 4.375%, as the 10-year Treasury inches up. Residential Starts (41) are flat with a year ago (39). Building permits are down 65% from a year ago, but the downtown ballpark will boost those numbers in the coming months.

We are off to a scary start to the year in regards to moisture. Drought and windy conditions mean much dryland winter wheat will be grazed out by cattle. Wheat prices are up 30% from a year ago, and corn is up 7%.

Profit margins are getting squeezed at area dairies, as prices are down 11% to $14.75. Area feedyards are seeing losses around $25 per head, with Fat prices at $119.

We will keep our eyes on moisture and the very tight labor market in our area.

 January 2018

Current Month 

Last Month 

 Last Year

 Index*

 175.00

 180.00

184.73

 Sales Tax Collections

$5,954,959

$5,652,937

$5,854,900

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$80,132,489

$74,177,530

$80,267,680

 New Vehicle Sales

345

769

915

 Used Vehicle Sales

 2,203

2,465

2,442

 Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)

14,883

14,847

16,308

 Airline Boardings

29,740

29,971

29,660

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$521,119

$533,999

$480,036

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

133,000

132,600

131,800

 Unemployment Rate

2.50%

2.60%

3.20%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

129,700

129,300

127,700

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

123,400

123,200

120,600

 Average Weekly Wages

$861.39

$861.39

$794.60

 Gas

62,652

62,729

62,665

 Water Connection

70,653

70,834

69,889

 Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

4.38%

4.25%

4.38%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$17,948,950

$32,850,731

$51,138,128

 Year to Date Permits

$429,978,339

$412,029,388

$484,144,745

 Residential Starts

41

38

39

 Year To Date Starts

479

438

492

 Median House Sold Price

$154,000

$159,000

$159,000

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

20

18

10

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$53.16

$51.25

$47.62

 Natural Gas

$2.81

$3.10

$3.55

 Wheat Per Bushel

$3.77

$3.75

$2.88

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$119.98

$117.03

$117.94

 Corn Per Bushel

$3.66

$3.63

$3.41

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$67.10

$66.80

$67.10

Milk

$14.75

$15.50

$16.50

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

Back to Top