Economic Analysis

January 2023

Amarillo’s economy has begun to slow due to tepid job growth and less construction, along with inflation masking weaker retail sales, while not helping commodity prices.

Retail Sales for the month are up 4.6% from a year ago. A declining rate compared to the 13% YTD increase. New Car Sales are down 29%, and Used Car Sales are down 37%. This might be due more to higher interest rates than inventory problems. Used Car prices are weakening, so trade-ins are less desirable. Hotel/Motel Tax Collections are down 7%. Airline boardings are down 23%, reflecting Southwest’s disastrous week of cancellations at the end of the year.

The Household Employment Survey is flat with last year-only about 570 more people working, while the Employers’ Survey is up 1.9% or 2,400 jobs. Wages are up 7% from this time last year, and our Unemployment Rate is 2.6%, which is a record low.

Building Permits totaled $64 million (included a $5 million medical office) bringing the YTD to a strong $1.08 billion, up 27% from 2021. Housing starts totaled 640 for the year in the city, plus approximately 700 more outside the city limits.

30-year mortgage rates are hovering around 6% and were 4% this time last year. There were only 25 housing starts last month compared to 251 this time last year. House prices are up 9%. With these numbers, a house payment today is around $1,470 and the exact same house would have a payment of $1,070 last year (up 37%).

There are 13 drilling rigs in the Panhandle vs. 10 one-year ago. Prices are lower. Oil is flat at $80, while Natural Gas dropped to $3.20 compared to $4.20 last year.

Feedyards are reporting small losses or breakevens due to higher input costs offsetting 12% higher cattle prices. Dairies are also breaking even, with milk prices at $20.50, barely enough to cover higher input costs. We need rain-badly. There are whispers that moisture will arrive next month. Wheat has been planted as a cover crop, and prices are steady at $8.36. If we get some rain, cotton and corn will be planted in May, even though prices are mostly flat with last year.

January 2023	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Sales Tax Collections	$8,149,473	$7,930,670	$7,793,109
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$108,130,286	$99,980,813	$98,766,819
New Vehicle Sales	544	545	762
Used Vehicle Sales	1,065	1,346	1,696
Airline Boardings	31,228	31,681	40,566
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	745,540	$716,202	$782,365
Population - Corporate Amarillo	201,106	200,405	200,405
Employment - CLF	134,268	134,288	134,091
Unemployment Rate	%2.60	2.80%	2.90%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	130,822	130,551	130,253
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	126,600	126,600	124,194
Average Weekly Wages	$980.00	$1,088.50	$124,194
Gas	69,271	69,227	75,765
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	6.125%	6.250%	4.000%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$63,964,716	$18,714,872	$80,131,513
Year to Date Permits	$1,080,963,361	$244,300,603	$851,355,871
Residential Starts	25	42	251.00
Year To Date Starts	640	615	2681.00
Six Months Trailing	$169,737	$160,453	$487,030
Median House Sold Price	$245,000	$235,000	$225,000
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	13	11	10
Oil Price Per Barrel	$79.86	$77.28	$83.82
Natural Gas	$3.20	$6.68	$4.26
Wheat Per Bushel	$8.36	$8.78	$7.79
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$155.00	$155.00	$138.00
Corn Per Bushel	$6.79	$6.51	$6.07
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$80.00	$86.40	$85.90
Milk	$20.50	$22.00	$18.75
Index*	223.53	211.38	272.09

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.