Economic Analysis | Amarillo National Bank

Economic Analysis

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October 2020

Amarillo’s economy continues at a level flat for the last 3 months, as employment is holding steady, and retail sales are basically flat, but construction is providing a strong boost.

Retail sales for the last 3 months have been essentially flat, with 12 months before and YTD being up 1%. Lubbock is up 2.8%, while Midland/Odessa are down 20.2%. This is better than the statewide average, which showed a 6% drop. Vehicle sales slowed from their stronger pace and are down about 20% from last year.

Airline Boardings are down 47% from last year and about flat with the month before; however, motels are doing relatively better, being down only 22%, as auto trips have replaced airplane trips.

Employment is down in Amarillo 5.2%, Lubbock 3.6% and Midland/Odessa 12.1%. There are 6,000 people less working in Amarillo (Household Survey down 6,600 and Employer’s Survey down 6,000). The unemployment rate is listed at 5.1%, but adding back the numbers who have left the labor force, gets the actual rate to around 8%. However, wages are up 2.4% from last year.

Construction is strong, with monthly Building Permits up 130% from last year and up 44% YTD. Residential Starts are much of this increase this month, with Starts up 33% and YTD up 23%. This September saw 366 existing homes sold—the highest in history for September. The average house price is up 16%, which is helped by the low mortgage rates.

Energy continues very weak, with only 1 drilling rig running, down from 4 last year and 18 2-years ago. Oil prices are hovering at $40, but Natural Gas prices are up to $2.80 from $2.30 last month and $2.20 last year.

Farming is hurt by lack of rain, but prices are up; with Wheat up 35%, Corn up 12% and Cotton flat with a year ago. Milo was a good profitable crop this year.

Cattle continue to do better, with prices up this month to about the same level as last year, with the same for Dairy, up from last month and level with last year.

These results are certainly adequate and much better than the levels that we feared would occur when the virus hit in March.

 October 2020

Current Month

Last Month

Last Year

 Index*

190.93

182.00

173.00

 Sales Tax Collections

$6,541,063

$6,753,486

$6,508,488

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$66,696,093

$60,155,030

$65,856,116

 New Vehicle Sales

675

646

897

 Used Vehicle Sales

1,580

1,782

2,007

 Airline Boardings

16,279

16,297

30,856

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$529,823

$587,609

$681,862

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

129,137

129,550

132,435

 Unemployment Rate

5.10%

4.30%

2.50%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

122,521

124,035

129,103

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

114,700

116,764

120,664

 Average Weekly Wages

$899.70

$899.70

$878.86

 Gas

63,513

68,008

67,447

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

2.875%

2.875%

4.000%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$65,395,333

$88,594,969

$28,440,720

 Year to Date Permits

$419,921,487

$354,511,155

$290,896,581

 Residential Starts

48

57

36

 Year To Date Starts

391

343

318

 Six Months Trailing

$341,117

$319,544

$188,990

 Median House Sold Price

$205,000

$200,000

$175,500

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

1

1

4

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$40.27

$37.39

$54.70

 Natural Gas

$2.87

$2.28

$2.21

 Wheat Per Bushel

$5.25

$4.93

$3.87

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$108.54

$101.34

$108.65

 Corn Per Bushel

$4.40

$3.70

$3.93

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$57.30

$60.40

$56.60

Milk

$18.00

$16.00

$17.50

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

Trends and Comparisons
October 2020

These industries employment levels are:

 

 Comparison (vs. 12 mos. ago) Amarillo   Lubbock  
  August September August September
Retail Sales (June) +.5% +5% +2% +2% 
         
Airline Boardings -52% -47%  -54% -52% 
Hotel Motel Tax -23% -22% -33% -59% 
         
Building Permits Month  +116% +129% +40% +38% 
Housing Starts Month +119% +33% +2% +114%
Housing Start YTD +35% +23% +28% +34%
Median House Price +14% +16% +13% +16%
         
Actuals        
  New Vehicle Sales 646 675 987 971
  Used Vehicle Sales 1,782 1,580 2,314 2,038
         
  Workers Employed        
    Household 124,035 122,521 156,340 153,249
    Employers 116,764 114,700 143,451 144,900
         
  Civil Labor Force 129,550 129,137 164,873 163,206
  Jobless Claims (since March)  17,970   25,038  
  +647   +962  

 

Federal Stimulus Funds:    
 (Total Allocated: 20% released so far)    
     
 City $11 million $14.113 million
 Counties $1.975 million $1.896 million
 Airport $7 million $9.5 million
 Transit (Bus) $7 million $9.6 million

 

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