Economic Analysis | Amarillo National Bank

Economic Analysis

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December 2020

Amarillo’s economy is ending the year on a more solid footing than we saw last March. Employment came back, retail sales were strong, and housing carried us throughout the year.

Our Household Survey shows a decrease of 8,700 jobs from a year ago, while the Employers’ Survey has a drop of 6,300. Both of these numbers are level with a month ago. Our bank believes the government shutdown accounts for 95% of the job losses and we hope the recovery sees those jobs return. Wages are up 5% from last December.

Retail sales are up 7% from 12 months ago. Year to Date sales are up 3%. Car sales had a bad month, with new car sales down 4% and used car sales down 20%. The virus outbreak this Fall led to less travelers, and airline boardings were down 46%. This is an improvement from last Spring when they were down 90%. Big news is Motel Tax receipts are up from last year, as auto travel replaced airline.

Housing finishes the year strong with low rates at 2.6% and this month’s housing starts are up 64% from 12 months ago. Year to Date starts are up 19% from last year. Realtors say the first 9 months of the year were at an all time high for the number of houses sold and activity has slowed down some due to seasonality. Housing is expected to remain strong in 2021. Commercial permits were boosted by a $22 million apartment project on Farmers Avenue.

Energy prices are better, with oil at $47 (down 20% from a year ago), and natural gas prices at $2.62, up 12%. There are no drilling rigs operating in the Panhandle.

Fall crops gave a boost to the Panhandle economy that equals most years, after adding in government payments. Cattle prices are down 8%, but are still making about $20 a head coming out of the feedyards. Dairies’ profits are shrinking, with milk prices down 17% from a year ago.

The new stimulus bill will support retail sales; and more PPP loans should work for about half the businesses that got loans in the first two rounds.

 December 2020

Current Month

Last Month

Last Year

 Index*

186.00

186.40

167.00

 Sales Tax Collections

$6,480,450

$7,917,555

$6,059,692

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$81,094,099

$74,613,649

$78,934,689

 New Vehicle Sales

606

801

634

 Used Vehicle Sales

1,321

1,785

1,659

 Airline Boardings

16,971

16,076

31,616

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$551,318

$554,969

$523,960

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

128,261

128,368

133,302

 Unemployment Rate

5.40%

4.40%

2.50%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

121,355

122,752

130,033

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

115,700

115,237

122,294

 Average Weekly Wages

$911.00

$911.00

$865.22

 Gas

69,238

62,639

62,639

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

2.625%

2.750%

4.130%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$46,203,196

$15,139,437

$9,652,851

 Year to Date Permits

$481,142,487

$434,939,290

$317,251,231

 Residential Starts

36

52

22

 Year To Date Starts

479

443

403

 Six Months Trailing

$633,866

$293,558

$145,807

 Median House Sold Price

$210,000

$205,000

$180,000

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

0

1

6

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$47.43

$40.12

$60.24

 Natural Gas

$2.62

$2.97

$2.34

 Wheat Per Bushel

$5.50

$5.65

$4.06

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$108.97

$110.05

$119.01

 Corn Per Bushel

$4.25

$4.40

$3.97

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$60.10

$59.30

$59.10

Milk

$15.84

$21.00

$19.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

Trends and Comparisons
October 2020

These industries employment levels are:

 

 Comparison (vs. 12 mos. ago) Amarillo   Lubbock  
  August September August September
Retail Sales (June) +.5% +5% +2% +2% 
         
Airline Boardings -52% -47%  -54% -52% 
Hotel Motel Tax -23% -22% -33% -59% 
         
Building Permits Month  +116% +129% +40% +38% 
Housing Starts Month +119% +33% +2% +114%
Housing Start YTD +35% +23% +28% +34%
Median House Price +14% +16% +13% +16%
         
Actuals        
  New Vehicle Sales 646 675 987 971
  Used Vehicle Sales 1,782 1,580 2,314 2,038
         
  Workers Employed        
    Household 124,035 122,521 156,340 153,249
    Employers 116,764 114,700 143,451 144,900
         
  Civil Labor Force 129,550 129,137 164,873 163,206
  Jobless Claims (since March)  17,970   25,038  
  +647   +962  

 

Federal Stimulus Funds:    
 (Total Allocated: 20% released so far)    
     
 City $11 million $14.113 million
 Counties $1.975 million $1.896 million
 Airport $7 million $9.5 million
 Transit (Bus) $7 million $9.6 million

 

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