Economic Analysis

September 2022

Amarillo’s economy continues to move forward, but headwinds are slowing the growth, as labor and supply shortages impact business, while higher interest rates slow the economy.

Retail Sales are up 5.6% from 12 months ago, bringing the YTD increase to 9.6%. With inflation running above 8%, these numbers represent declining unit sales. Auto Sales are about flat for both New and Used.

Airline Boardings continue to soar, since Southwest added additional flights to compete with American’s larger schedule. Boardings are up 18% (and the parking garage is full every weekend). The Hotel tax is up, but occupancy is down slightly for existing properties (plus several new ones have been added); so the sector is basically flattening.

The Employers’ Survey shows 2,600 more people working, with the Household Survey up 1,100 from a year ago. Our chart of wages is up 19%, but there is some “noise” in these numbers, as there was a period of lower wages. Estimates from employers reflect about 6% higher wages. The 3% unemployment rate is the lowest in Texas.

Higher mortgage rates have slowed the housing market, but so much pent-up demand existed that starts are still up from one year ago, and up 35% YTD. Building Permits are off due to less major projects. House prices dipped 1% from last month, but are still up 10% from last year. This entire construction sector is slowing.

Commodity prices have come off from their peaks, but are still up sharply from last year; with Oil up 22%, Natural Gas up a whopping 68%, Wheat and Corn both up 28%, with Cotton and Milk up 25%. August rains have given a boost to the Fall crops, and the dire warnings of mid-summer for corn and milo are proving to be too pessimistic.

Nearly every business continues to report labor shortages and problems with the availability of quality workers. This represents a drag on the economy and distorts some of our numbers.

August 2022	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Sales Tax Collections	$8,078,158	$9,627,079	$9,098,784
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$74,668,439	$66,590,280	$60,482,406
New Vehicle Sales	610	612	783
Used Vehicle Sales	1569	1,636	1,905
Airline Boardings	32,388	36,425	32,941
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax		$1,079,136	$952,879
Population - Corporate Amarillo	199,747	199,747	191,514
Employment - CLF	133,290	134,335	132,847
Unemployment Rate	%3.00	3.10%	4.00%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	129322	130,177	127,595
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	124100	124,200	121,591
Average Weekly Wages	$1088.5	$936.50	$1,013.50
Gas	68712	69,603	69,506
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	6.5%	6.125%	3.375%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$31,650,333	$20,670,003	$23,000,291
Year to Date Permits	$207,781,540	$176,378,661	$340,380,955
Residential Starts	54	54	67
Year To Date Starts	470	416	359
Six Months Trailing	$174,430	$151,268	$321,906
Median House Sold Price	$248,000	$250,000	$225,000
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	8	9	9
Oil Price Per Barrel	$85.08	$91.55	$68.44
Natural Gas	$8.27	$7.86	$3.86
Wheat Per Bushel	$9.05	$9.03	$7.37
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$142.00	$138.00	$121.00
Corn Per Bushel	$6.78	$6.11	$5.62
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$91.3	$93.70	$71.40
Milk	$20.25	$20.25	$16.00
Index*	229.80	221.60	208.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.