Economic Analysis

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April 2022

Sharply higher commodities and job growth pushed Amarillo’s economy ahead during the last month, with increases in most of our categories.

Retail Sales are up a strong 18% from last year and the YTD is up 15%. About half of this is probably inflation. Constrained supply has reduced vehicle sales: New vehicles down 25% and Used down 20%

Tourism continues its rebound, with Airline Boardings up 26% and Motel Tax up 13% (much of that is probably higher room rates).

The employment situation continues tight, with 2.7% unemployment being the lowest in Texas. 3,500 more people are employed on the Household Survey and 4,200 more on the Worker’s Survey. Weekly wages are reported up 4.5% for Amarillo.

Mortgage rates (up 200 basis points) will have a negative effect on the housing market, but the tight supply continues. Residential Starts were 46, up from 25 a year ago, with the YTD starts at 186, up from 117. Median house price is 4.5% higher. Total Building Permits are down 14% (and 71% YTD). Some of the big projects were last year.

Our Energy sector is booming, with Oil up 70% to $106 and Natural Gas made a recent pop to $7, up 174% from a year ago. Drilling Rigs bounced up to 6, from 4 last month and 5 a year ago.

Farm prices are excellent, but lack of rain will hurt yields. Wheat prices are up, but the wheat crop will be terrible in most areas. Corn prices are up 27% from last year and Cotton 38% and Milk 36%. Cattle prices are up 27%, but input costs in all areas of agriculture are up strongly.

The inflation is juicing these numbers and making economic activity appear stronger than it actually is; but times continue to be good for most businesses. The Labor Market continues to be tight.

 April 2022

Current Month

Last Month

Last Year

 Sales Tax Collections

$6,854,426

$6,976,928

$5,822,908

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$31,598,500

$24,744,073

$27,497,080

 New Vehicle Sales

537

632

722

 Used Vehicle Sales

1,586

1,266

1,980

 Airline Boardings

27,603

21,615

21,931

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$551,348

$814,184

$487,765

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

199,747

199,747

191,514

 Employment - CLF

136,476

136,034

134,134

 Unemployment Rate

2.70%

3.40%

4.40%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

132,798

131,454

128,265

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

124,300

124,051

120,198

 Average Weekly Wages

$936.50

$936.50

$896.50

 Gas

70,359

69,842

70,029

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

5.500%

5.250%

3.375%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$18,099,900

$8,488,939

$21,125,470

 Year to Date Permits

$56,384,792

$34,303,622

$195,420,389

 Residential Starts

46

75

26

 Year To Date Starts

188

142

117

 Six Months Trailing

$227,269

$258,054

$262,320

 Median House Sold Price

$220,000

$219,000

$211,500

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

6

4

5

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$106.95

$96.18

$63.12

 Natural Gas

$7.30

$4.54

$2.66

 Wheat Per Bushel

$11.00

$11.35

$6.54

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$155.00

$148.00

$120.50

 Corn Per Bushel

$7.35

$7.60

$5.77

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$99.77

$95.90

$72.10

Milk

$24.00

$$22.00

$17.59

Index*

220.53

214.88

184.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

Trends & Comparisons

  Amarillo Lubbock Midland Odessa
  Actual Actual Actual Actual
         
Retail Sales Tax $6,854,426 $6,623,551 $5,075,581 $4,492,581 
Airline Boarding 27,603 39,434 49,384 (Odessa Included)  
Hotel/Motel Tax $551,348 $641,182   $99,657
         
Building Permits March $18,099,900 $72,961,124    $750,000
Housing Starts MTD 46 198   87
Housing Starts YTD 188 760    276 
         
New Vehicle Sales 537 727 1,324 (Odessa Included)  
Used Vehicle Sales 1,586 2,098  2,069 (Odessa Included)  
         
Workers Employed        
    House Survey 132,798 164,547 100,733 77,407
    Employer's Survey 124,300 155,000  105,300 74,000
Civil Labor Force 136,476 169,642 104,383 81,556
Unemployment Rate 2.7% 3.00% 3.5% 5.1%

 

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