Economic Analysis

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August 2021

Amarillo’s economy continues on its strong path, with improvements in most areas, plus a surge in commodity prices. The Stimulus money flows through the economy; however, constraints come from supply chain shortages and shortages of workers.

Retail Sales are up 13% from last year, but also 21% from two years ago. YTD sales are up 15% for 12 and 24 months. Vehicle Sales remain good, even though shortages of New are still reported and Used prices may be peaking out.

Airline Boardings are only 3% below the level of two years ago. Hotel Tax Collections are strong, with high occupancy all summer.

Workers Employed in both sectors are up 700 from two years ago and up 5,000 from last year. Residential Gas connections are up 11% from last year, showing continued growth in Amarillo.

Building Permits are also strong, with levels double from last year and the YTD up mostly because of Amazon. Residential Starts have rebounded, even doubled from two years ago, while Median House Prices are up sharply as more mid-price houses are selling, and fewer lower priced houses are being sold.

The Commodity Sector is all good news, with drilling rigs up to 9 from 0 last year, but still below 15 from two years ago. Oil prices are up 24% from two years ago and up 60% from last year’s lows. Natural Gas is up 60% from two years ago and up 80% from last year.

Agricultural Commodities are strong with Wheat up 71%, Corn up 24% and Cotton up 5% from two years ago. Fat Cattle are only up 10%, and Milk prices are down. Dairy and Cattle will have higher input costs through the price of feed.

CPI estimates for Amarillo:  
    Groceries + 6.0%
    Housing + 6.5%
    Transportation + 11.0%
    Health + 4.0% 
    Misc. + 5.0
   
    Overall Average + 6.6%

 

 August 2021

Current Month

Last Month

Last Year

 Sales Tax Collections

$9,098,784

$7,325,835

$8,009,786

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$60,482,406

$51,383,621

$53,401,543

 New Vehicle Sales

783

730

675

 Used Vehicle Sales

1,905

1,609

2,259

 Airline Boardings

32,941

31,576

14,171

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$952,579

$739,067

$490,528

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

199,747

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

134,175

134,153

131,146

 Unemployment Rate

4.00%

4.50%

5.70%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

128,753

128,370

123,616

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

120,800

116,692

116,692

 Average Weekly Wages

$915.00

$1,013.50

$899.70

 Gas

69,506

69,424

63,227

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

3.125%

3.375%

2.875%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$23,000,291

$18,479,059

$10,699,910

 Year to Date Permits

$340,380,955

$317,380,664

$265,916,185

 Residential Starts

67

58

69

 Year To Date Starts

292

252

286

 Six Months Trailing

$321,906

$309,134

$246,712

 Median House Sold Price

$225,000

$230,000

$206,000

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

9

7

0

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$68.44

$73.03

$42.72

 Natural Gas

$3.86

$3.66

$2.14

 Wheat Per Bushel

$7.37

$6.54

$4.22

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$121.00

$120.00

$104.00

 Corn Per Bushel

$5.62

$5.68

$3.50

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$71.40

$69.70

$56.50

Milk

$16.00

$17.50

$19.00

Index*

208.00

193.43

166.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

Big Picture Analysis

Stimulus

Stimulus money is flowing to public entities in amounts that are hard to comprehend. We are trying to get totals on stimulus programs for the public entities. An incomplete list would include:

Entity

Totals

City of Amarillo $42 million
Potter County $23 million
Randall County $26 million
Amarillo ISD $109 million
Amarillo Airport $10 million
   
Canyon ISD $10 million
   
City of Lubbock $56 million
Lubbock County $60 million
Lubbock ISD $122 million
Lubbock Airport $13 million

Census Data

The Census Data is out with population numbers that include:

 

2021 Population

% Chg 1-yr

% Chg 10-yr

Amarillo 199,747 .09% 4.75%
Potter County 114,823 -1.12% -5.40%
Randall County 139,735 1.45% 16.98%
       
Lubbock 263,648 -92% 14.84%
Lubbock County 316,453 .94% 12.90%

 

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