Economic Analysis

March 2019

Amarillo’s economy has slowed down in 2019, with job growth weakening and construction slumping.

Retail sales for the month are up 2% from 12 months ago, but year to date sales are down 1%. New Car Sales are up 11%, but Used Car Sales are down 2%.

Airline Boardings and Hotel/Motel Tax collections are both up 9%.

Job growth has slowed. The Employers’ Survey shows an increase of just 100 jobs over last year. The Household Survey says there are 414 more people working in Amarillo. Wages are down 3% from last year. Lubbock’s Employers’ Survey is up 1,900 jobs and their Household Survey is up 1,700 jobs. Midland Odessa is up 11,100 jobs in the Employers and 9,500 in the Household, even as the Permian drilling activity has slowed.

Building permits are down 71% in Amarillo. Housing starts are down 38%. Mortgage Rates are lower than last year, but the housing market hasn’t responded yet. House sales are down 10% from 2018 and prices are up 4%.

Commodities are having a decent start to Spring.

Fat Cattle are making about $116 per head, with break evens around $1.20.

Dairies are still losing money even with lower input costs. $14.25 milk is right at breakeven.

Wheat prices are up 4%. Corn prices are up 2%. Cotton is down 5%.

Energy commodities are mixed, with oil prices at $54 down from $58 this time last year. Natural Gas prices are down 1% from last year. There are 11 drilling rigs in the Panhandle this month. Last March, there was 20.

March 2019	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index^*	169.58	178.58	207.47
Sales Tax Collections	$5,642,211	$7,623,833	$5,513,234
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$19,327,223	$13,685,011	$19,575,428
New Vehicle Sales	753	1,020	678
Used Vehicle Sales	2,605	2,832	2,678
Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)	18,821	19,705	16,393
Airline Boardings	26,518	31,498	24,274
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$477,747	$494,671	$437,327
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	133,456	132,026	133,100
Unemployment Rate	2.90%	3.10%	2.90%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	129,616	127,980	129,200
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	120,400	119,400	120,300
Average Weekly Wages	$838.53	$838.53	$861.39
Gas	63,367	63,562	62,923
Water Connection	71,261	71,261	70,540
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	4.625%	4.750%	4.750%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$22,546,606	$23,827,023	$78,342,836
Year to Date Permits	$46,091,283	$23,827,023	$123,197,265
Residential Starts	39	30	46
Year To Date Starts	68	30	109
Median House Sold Price	$165,000	$170,000	$158,000
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	11	11	20
Oil Price Per Barrel	$54.46	$54.02	$57.80
Natural Gas	$2.57	$3.32	$2.60
Wheat Per Bushel	$4.61	$4.86	$4.41
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$127.98	$124.98	$126.28
Corn Per Bushel	$3.96	$3.95	$3.87
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$65.30	$66.18	$68.70
Milk	$14.25	$13.75	$14.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.