Economic Analysis

January 2018

Amarillo’s economy had a good month in November, but there are signs of concern on the horizon.

Most consumer categories were up about 5% from a year ago, with retail sales up 5% (YTD up 4%), and New Cars up 5%. Airline Boardings are up 6% and Hotel/Motel Tax up 6%. Good consumer outlook has kept these strong this Fall.

Workers employed are up 1,400 jobs in the Employer’s Survey, with the largest gains in oil field, construction and health care. Household Survey shows an adjusted gain of 2,500, with unemployment down to 2.5%. Amarillo wages are up 4% from a year ago, with the Amarillo CPI up about 3%.

Lubbock’s Household Survey was up 4,100 jobs for an unemployment rate of 2.7%. Midland and Odessa are up 6,800, with unemployment of 2.3%

Housing in Amarillo has slowed, as mortgage rates remain about 5%. November Residential starts are down 40% from a year ago, but still up 15% YTD. Median sales price is down 3%. Total permits for November were flat, with YTD still up 10%.

Oil is turning negative, as prices dropped from $70 to $48. Natural Gas prices had spiked to $4.50, but are back down toward $3.00. Natural Gas liquid prices had been climbing until the recent the drop in oil, so their decline helped bring the natural gas prices down towards more normal levels. There are still 19 rigs working in the Panhandle, up one from a year ago.

Cattle prices are up 1% from a year ago, and about breaking even versus losing $25 per head a year ago. Dairies are operating at a break-even, with milk prices of $14.50.

Wheat prices are up 30% and corn is up 7%. Both will need more moisture than we got last year, but are off to a good start. The South Plains got all of their cotton cut before last week’s snow storm and prices are up 6% from last year.

January 2019	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index^*	188.00	197.00	175.00
Sales Tax Collections	$6,061,178	$5,961,916	$5,954,959
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$83,322,350	$77,261,171	$80,132,489
New Vehicle Sales	905	808	345
Used Vehicle Sales	2,043	808	2,203
Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)	16,958	14,495	14,883
Airline Boardings	32,260	31,914	521,119
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$525,807	$563,794	$533,999
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	134,100	134,100	133,000
Unemployment Rate	2.60%	2.50%	2.50%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	130,600	130,700	129,700
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	123,300	123,200	123,400
Average Weekly Wages	$898.78	$898.78	$861.39
Gas	62,959	63,259	62,652
Water Connection	70,548	70,951	70,653
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	4.875%	5.000%	4.380%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$15,197,392	$31,588,354	$17,948,950
Year to Date Permits	$469,458,308	$454,260,915	$429,978,339
Residential Starts	28	23	41
Year To Date Starts	533	505	479
Median House Sold Price	$167,000	$172,000	$154,000
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	19	19	20
Oil Price Per Barrel	$45.51	$60.77	$53.16
Natural Gas	$3.09	$3.55	$2.81
Wheat Per Bushel	$4.85	$4.88	$3.77
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$123.85	$118.73	$119.98
Corn Per Bushel	$4.00	$3.88	$3.66
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$72.66	$72.30	$67.10
Milk	$14.00	$14.50	$14.75

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.