Economic Analysis

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July 2021

The re-opening of the economy has hit full steam in Amarillo.

Employment, retail sales, construction and commodity prices are all up from this time last year and level or up from 2 years ago. YTD Retail Sales are up 19% from 2020 and up 19% from 2019

Our Household Survey shows an increase of 4,800 jobs from a year ago and flat with 2 years ago. The Employers’ Survey also shows a gain of 4,800 over 2020 and up 300 over 2019.

Many of our customers are still having a hard time filing job openings (3,000 job openings in Amarillo are 3X the normal level), but expect that to end as the government unemployment stimulus runs out. Wages are up 6% from a year ago.

Construction continues its busy path, with Residential Starts up 16 for the year and Commercial benefitting from Amazon and the Tech Vet School. Interest Rates have increased and there is reason to think the housing markets momentum could slow down the 2nd half of 2021 due to less supply.

There are now 7 drilling rigs in the Panhandle compared to none this time last year and 12 in 2019. Oil prices are up 70% to $69. Natural Gas Prices are up 110%.

Cattle prices are up 22% from last Summer, but Feedyards are still seeing losses around $50 per head.

Dairy margins improved a little bit, even with Milk prices down 17% from a year ago.

The wheat crop is proving to be much better than expected, and may be the best in a decade, especially to the east. Corn prices are up, and yields look good, with help from good moisture. Input costs for farms have risen, but are offset by less irrigation cost for this year.

The increase in corn prices is a boost to farm income, but will raise the cost of gain in the feedyards.

Review of commodity prices over the last 2 years is interesting:

  2021 2020 2019
Wheat $6.54 $4.22 $4.55
Corn 5.68 3.51 4.62
Cotton 69 55 71
       
Fat Cattle 120 98 108
Milk 17.50 21.50 16.75
       
Oil 69.00 40 60
Natural Gas 3.66 1.74 2.32

 

 July 2021

Current Month

Last Month

Last Year

 Index*

193.43

197.12

161.37

 Sales Tax Collections

$7,360,264

$7,360,264

$6,314,715

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$51,383,621

$44,057,785

$45,391,756

 New Vehicle Sales

730

834

683

 Used Vehicle Sales

1,609

1886

1,807

 Airline Boardings

31,576

27,681

5,041

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$739,067

$619,995

$284,572

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

134,153

134,085

132,012

 Unemployment Rate

4.50%

3.90%

6.70%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

128,088

128,870

123,165

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

121,900

121,543

117,145

 Average Weekly Wages

$1,013.50

$1,013.50

$955.84

 Gas

69,424

69,447

68,904

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

3.375%

3.375%

2.875%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$53,711,505

$53,711,505

$63,685,646

 Year to Date Permits

$317,380,664

$295,255,541

$255,216,275

 Residential Starts

58

5

25

 Year To Date Starts

252

180

217

 Six Months Trailing

$309,134

$296,212

$257,738

 Median House Sold Price

$230,000

$222,550

$209,000

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

7

4

0

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$73.03

$70.92

$40.80

 Natural Gas

$3.66

$3.35

$1.74

 Wheat Per Bushel

$6.54

$6.60

$4.22

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$120.00

$120.00

$98.20

 Corn Per Bushel

$5.68

$5.72

$3.51

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$69.70

$69.80

$55.00

Milk

$17.50

$16.50

$21.50

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

Trends & Comparisons
July 2021

From Two Years Ago

 

Amarillo

Lubbock

  June 2021 June  2019 June 2021 June 2019
Retail Sales +16% +24% +12% +15%
         
Airline Boardings +526% -33% +161% -18%
Hotel Motel Tax +159% +24% +145% +19%
         
Building Permits Month -70% -27%    
Housing Starts Month +132% +38%    
Housing Starts YTD +16% +15%    
           
           
Actuals        
   New Vehicle Sales 730 847 1,172 847
   Used Vehicle Sales 1,609 1,934 2,352 1,934
           
   Worker Employed        
      Household 128,088 158,579 154,616 158,579
      Employers 121,900 150,800 147,900 150,800
   Civil Labor Force 134,153 163,747 163,924 163,747

 

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