Economic Analysis

May 2019

Amarillo’s economy has slowed down. Retail sales have weakened and we continue to see a slowdown in employment growth.

Retail sales were up only 1% from 12 months ago. The year to date retail sales are a little lower than last year. Car sales had a rough month with New Car Sales down 6% from last year and Used Car Sales down 1%.

The Employer’s Survey shows an increase of only 60 total jobs from this time last year. Manufacturing, Service, and Education & Health Services saw decreases. The Household Survey was up only 304 jobs. The Unemployment Rate is 2.1% in Amarillo. The Employer’s Survey for Lubbock indicates 1,900 new jobs. Their Household Survey shows an increase of 1,500 jobs.

Residential Construction has slowed down. There were 35 Housing Starts last month compared to 43 a year before. Year to date starts are 142 vs.194 last year.

Commercial Construction has also stalled. Last month’s permits were 30% lower than 2018 and 32% down year to date from 2018.

Drilling activity is half what it was last year. There are 11 drilling rigs in the Panhandle down from 19 last year. These rigs are operating more efficiently, so total wells drilled is probably down 25%.The price of oil is flat with a year ago at $63.89. Natural Gas is down 4% to $2.66.

The recent rains will set us up well for Summer crops. Wheat will get cut over the next month and its price is down 12% at $4.11. Corn that was planted should get off to a good start and its prices are down 6% at $3.84. Cotton is at $68 and flat with a year ago.

Feedyards continue to have a good spring. Profits of $53 per head on unhedged cattle at prices that are 2% lower than last spring.

Dairy struggles continue. Some small profits are here and there, but for the majority of the industry, operations remain below breakeven prices even though milk is up 7% to $15.30.

May 2019	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index^*	174.77	179.40	201.39
Sales Tax Collections	$7,561,918	$5,612,007	$7,448,229
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$32,501,149	$24,939,231	$32,502,814
New Vehicle Sales	587	711	625
Used Vehicle Sales	1,727	2,282	1,747
Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)	24,122	24,122	24,023
Airline Boardings	30,543	25,123	31,127
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$643,388	$434,023	$635,556
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	132,533	133,197	134,000
Unemployment Rate	2.10%	2.70%	2.60%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	129,727	129,588	130,500
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	120,900	120,400	121,900
Average Weekly Wages	$838.53	$838.53	$861.39
Gas	63,466	67,100	63,274
Water Connection	71,261	71,261	70,970
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	4.500%	4.500%	5.000%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$29,764,832	$53,551,562	$42,820,900
Year to Date Permits	$129,352,677	$99,587,845	$190,103,382
Residential Starts	35	39	43
Year To Date Starts	142	107	194
Median House Sold Price	$168,900	$162,000	$164,000
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	11	10	19
Oil Price Per Barrel	$63.89	$58.59	$63.51
Natural Gas	$2.66	$2.85	$2.78
Wheat Per Bushel	$4.11	$4.25	$4.68
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$119.85	$123.91	$121.37
Corn Per Bushel	$3.84	$3.95	$4.08
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$68.80	$67.50	$67.70
Milk	$15.30	$15.00	$14.25

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

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