Economic Analysis

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March 2019

Amarillo’s economy has slowed down in 2019, with job growth weakening and construction slumping.

Retail sales for the month are up 2% from 12 months ago, but year to date sales are down 1%. New Car Sales are up 11%, but Used Car Sales are down 2%.

Airline Boardings and Hotel/Motel Tax collections are both up 9%.

Job growth has slowed. The Employers’ Survey shows an increase of just 100 jobs over last year. The Household Survey says there are 414 more people working in Amarillo. Wages are down 3% from last year. Lubbock’s Employers’ Survey is up 1,900 jobs and their Household Survey is up 1,700 jobs. Midland Odessa is up 11,100 jobs in the Employers and 9,500 in the Household, even as the Permian drilling activity has slowed.

Building permits are down 71% in Amarillo. Housing starts are down 38%. Mortgage Rates are lower than last year, but the housing market hasn’t responded yet. House sales are down 10% from 2018 and prices are up 4%.

Commodities are having a decent start to Spring.

Fat Cattle are making about $116 per head, with break evens around $1.20.

Dairies are still losing money even with lower input costs. $14.25 milk is right at breakeven.

Wheat prices are up 4%. Corn prices are up 2%. Cotton is down 5%.

Energy commodities are mixed, with oil prices at $54 down from $58 this time last year. Natural Gas prices are down 1% from last year. There are 11 drilling rigs in the Panhandle this month. Last March, there was 20.

 March 2019

Current Month 

Last Month 

 Last Year

 Index*

169.58

178.58

207.47

 Sales Tax Collections

$5,642,211

$7,623,833

$5,513,234

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$19,327,223

$13,685,011

$19,575,428

 New Vehicle Sales

753

1,020

678

 Used Vehicle Sales

2,605

2,832

2,678

 Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)

18,821

19,705

16,393

 Airline Boardings

26,518

31,498

24,274

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$477,747

$494,671

$437,327

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

133,456

132,026

133,100

 Unemployment Rate

2.90%

3.10%

2.90%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

129,616

127,980

129,200

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

120,400

119,400

120,300

 Average Weekly Wages

$838.53

$838.53

$861.39

 Gas

63,367

63,562

62,923

 Water Connection

71,261

71,261

70,540

 Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

 4.625%

4.750%

 4.750%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$22,546,606

$23,827,023

$78,342,836

 Year to Date Permits

$46,091,283

$23,827,023

$123,197,265

 Residential Starts

39

30

46

 Year To Date Starts

68

30

109

 Median House Sold Price

$165,000

$170,000

$158,000

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

11

11

20

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$54.46

$54.02

$57.80

 Natural Gas

$2.57

$3.32

$2.60

 Wheat Per Bushel

$4.61

$4.86

$4.41

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$127.98

$124.98

$126.28

 Corn Per Bushel

$3.96

$3.95

$3.87

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$65.30

$66.18

$68.70

Milk

$14.25

$13.75

$14.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

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