Economic Analysis

November 2019

Continued weakness in job growth keeps Amarillo’s economy in a lull.

Both Surveys show slower growth in jobs over the last 12 months with the Household up 775 jobs and the Employers up 600 jobs. Wages are down 2%, after we reported them up last month.

Lubbock is up 2,375 jobs and Midland/Odessa is up 1,500 jobs.

Retail sales are up 3.3% from 12 months ago and 2.6% year to date. New car sales are flat and used car sales are up 6%.

Hotel/Motel tax collections are flat with last year, as are Airline Boardings. A new weekly nonstop Southwest flight on Sundays to Houston could turn into a daily flight if use increases.

Real Estate in Amarillo has been helped by lower mortgage rates. Home sales are steady and new house starts are flat with last year at 36. Year to date they are down 27% from 2018. Total Building Permits were flat last month and year to date are down 20%.

The story in commodities is the slowdown in Panhandle drilling. Last year, there were 26 drilling rigs in the Panhandle. This month there are 4. Low Natural Gas prices ($2.20) will keep rigs off line for the rest of the year. Oil is steady in the mid $50’s.

Feedyards are losing about $142 per head this month on Fat Cattle. Dairy margins have improved, with milk prices at $17.50.

Corn is expected to turn in a down year and prices are down 3%. South Plains cotton is reporting a good start to cutting, although prices are down 19%.

November 2019	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index^*	173.00	180.00	190.00
Sales Tax Collections	$6,508,488	$6,717,266	$6,302,557
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$65,856,116	$59,347,628	$64,216,357
New Vehicle Sales	897	708	918
Used Vehicle Sales	2,007	1,923	1,888
Airline Boardings	30,856	34,089	30,941
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$681,862	$764,957	$678,284
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	131,954	131,480	131,430
Unemployment Rate	2.50%	2.70%	2.70%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	128,667	127,927	127,892
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	120,000	120,100	119,400
Average Weekly Wages	$878.86	$878.86	$898.78
Gas	67,447	68,715	62,549
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	4.000%	4.125%	5.25%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$28,440,720	$7,010,032	$24,008,727
Year to Date Permits	$290,896,581	$262,455,961	$366,406,514
Residential Starts	36	26	36
Year To Date Starts	318	282	436
Median House Sold Price	$175,500	$174,900	$177,000
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	4	8	26
Oil Price Per Barrel	$54.70	$58.48	$68.71
Natural Gas	$2.21	$2.67	$2.81
Wheat Per Bushel	$3.87	$3.89	$4.95
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$108.65	$99.96	$110.99
Corn Per Bushel	$3.93	$4.05	$3.82
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$56.60	$74.00	$69.70
Milk	$17.50	$17.00	$15.00

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.