Economic Analysis

March 2020

Amarillo’s economy has slowed considerably, but it won’t be until next month that we can really see the effects of the Coronavirus/Covid-19 shutdown.

Retail sales for the month were up 4% from a year ago. They are up 7.5% year to date. This shows how strong the economy was going into the crisis.

The Household Survey shows an increase of around 2,242 jobs from last year, up almost 2%. The Employers’ Survey shows a decrease of 2%, down about the same number of 2,198. We aren’t even going to estimate how much each survey will be down next month.

Airline Boardings were down 4% from a year ago. Hotel / Motel tax collection is also down 6%. These numbers will be very bad next month.

Housing is a bright spot, with 30 year rates below 4%. There were 57 residential starts last month, up 46% from 12 months ago. Year to date starts are up 28% from last year.

Energy is in a precipitous drop. In March oil fell to $31 (average), but that number today is around $21.70. Natural Gas is $1.62. There are only 7 drilling rigs operating in the Panhandle.

Unhedged cattle are losing money, while packers’ margins have doubled. Cattle prices are very volatile and at $112, they are down 12% from a year ago. Dairies are seeing $16.25 for their milk, up 16% from last year.

Corn prices ($3.97) are flat with last year and wheat ( $4.45) is down 4%.

Our bank’s editorial is the nation’s economy was very strong going into the crisis and that our area’s economy was a little weaker due to lower energy prices. The duration of the crisis will determine the velocity of recovery.

March 2020	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index^*	150.57	164.27	169.58
Sales Tax Collections	$5,878,583	$8,751,896	$5,642,211
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$20,787,621	$14,909,038	$19,327,223
New Vehicle Sales	518	733	753
Used Vehicle Sales	1,537	1,642	2,605
Airline Boardings	25,448	32,433	26,518
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$451,145	$504,923	$477,747
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	133,883	132,641	131,752
Unemployment Rate	2.60%	2.70%	2.70%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	130,437	129,118	128,195
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	122,100	123,076	124,298
Average Weekly Wages	$865.22	$865.22	$838.53
Gas	68,879	69,174	63,367
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	3.500%	3.875%	4.630%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$15,763,455	$21,726,039	$22,546,606
Year to Date Permits	$37,489,495	$21,726,039	$46,091,283
Residential Starts	57	30	39
Year To Date Starts	87	30	68
Six Months Trailing	$105,104	$96,350	$173,641
Median House Sold Price	$171,750	$174,600	$165,000
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	7	5	11
Oil Price Per Barrel	$31.49	$52.18	$54.46
Natural Gas	$1.84	$1.89	$2.57
Wheat Per Bushel	$4.45	$4.64	$4.61
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$112.00	$118.93	$127.98
Corn Per Bushel	$3.97	$4.05	$3.96
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$59.70	$61.50	$65.30
Milk	$16.50	$17.00	$14.25

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.