Economic Analysis

November 2018

The Panhandle economy continues to strengthen, carried by strong retail sales, growing jobs and stable commodity prices.

Retail sales for the month are up 6% compared to 2017 and year to date sales are up 4%. New car sales are up 5% and used car sales are up 14%. Airline boardings are up 7% from 12 months ago but the Hotel/Motel Tax collections are down 4%.

Amarillo’s Employers’ Survey shows an adjusted increase of 2,800 jobs from last year. The Household Survey’s adjusted number is an increase of 2,500 jobs. Wages are up 4% and we will watch this number along with inflation to see if they are in line.

Building permits are up 89% from a year ago. Large projects in this number are restaurants, a tractor supply store and an athletic facility on Amarillo Boulevard. Year to Date permits are up 12% from 2017.

Home construction is up in Amarillo with 46 residential starts last month, up from 28 starts 12 months ago. Year to Date Starts (482) are up 21% from last year. 30 year Mortgage rates are 5.25%.

Wheat prices are up 29% from a year ago and the recent moisture bodes well for winter wheat. Corn prices are up 6%. Cotton is being harvested right now and prices are up 11% although the crop isn’t expected to perform this year.

Feedyards are operating below break evens with prices at $114, down 8% from last year. Dairies are right above breakeven with milk prices at $15.

Oil and gas is mixed this month. There are 25 drilling rigs in the Panhandle, 7 more than this time last year. Oil is down around $56, while natural gas prices are going higher. Our area production is seeing this price come their way and some are expecting to get strong hedge positions out of this price spike.

Amarillo’s Cost of Living Index is up just over 3% year to date.

November 2018	Current Month	Last Month	Last Year
Index^*	212.51	190.00	191.12
Sales Tax Collections	$7,082,897	$6,302,557	$6,669,063
Sales Tax Collection-YTD	$71,299,255	$64,216,357	$68,524,592
New Vehicle Sales	1,002	1,032	952
Used Vehicle Sales	3,060	2,668	2,678
Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)	18,853	18,589	14,055
Airline Boardings	29,741	30,941	27,849
Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax	$546,033	$678,284	$568,641
Population - Corporate Amarillo	191,514	191,514	191,514
Employment - CLF	133,500	132,200	131,400
Unemployment Rate	2.50%	2.70%	2.40%
Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)	130,100	128,800	128,300
Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey)	122,600	121,300	122,400
Average Weekly Wages	$898.78	$898.78	$861.39
Gas	63,259	62,549	62,529
Water Connection	71,510	71,003	70,881
Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates	5.250%	5.250%	4.25%
Building Permits Dollar Amount	$56,473,046	$24,008,727	$29,909,236
Year to Date Permits	$422,679,561	$366,406,514	$376,949,930
Residential Starts	46	36	28
Year To Date Starts	482	436	397
Median House Sold Price	$172,000	$177,000	$174,500
Drilling Rigs In Panhandle	25	26	18
Oil Price Per Barrel	$71.34	$68.71	$55.00
Natural Gas	$3.16	$2.81	$3.12
Wheat Per Bushel	$4.88	$4.95	$3.79
Fed Cattle Per CWT	$114.13	$110.99	$123.60
Corn Per Bushel	$3.88	$3.82	$3.65
Cotton (Cents Per Pound)	$71.10	$69.70	$63.80
Milk	$15.00	$15.00	$15.75

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.