Economic Analysis | Amarillo National Bank

Economic Analysis

Download as PDF

July 2020

Amarillo’s economy held surprisingly steady, as Texas reopened the economy after the pandemic shutdown.

Retail sales were flat compared to 12 months ago and year to date. This compares to declines of 17% in New York City and other closed cities.

Car sales were stronger than expected with new cars up 6% from a year ago and used cars up 13%.

Tourism has come to a halt, with less people flying (boardings down 84%) and staying in hotels (Hotel/Motel Tax down 57%).

Employment is a little worse than reported. We think the unemployment rate is around 10.5% both here and Lubbock (versus the 6% reported by the State-but they do not count the 6,100 who dropped out of the work force). The Household Survey shows a decrease of 10,134 jobs and the Employers’ Survey is down 7,600. Most of the losses are in Hospitality and Energy.

Large Construction has held up well during the pandemic. Building permits are up 150% from a year ago. Year to Date permits are up 30%. Residential starts are down 40% and a flat year to date.

Housing is strong, with close the record sales for Amarillo and prices up 17%. Low rates (2.88% 30-year mortgage) and people’s fear that the government will shut them down again in the future are driving people to look for better housing.

Commodities are suffering. There are 0 drilling rigs operating in the Panhandle. Natural Gas prices remain under $2 at $1.74, down 25% from a year ago. Oil is at $40, down 32% from last July.

The drought it getting more and more severe with the recent heat wave. There was some wheat cut earlier this Summer and prices are down 7% from a year ago. Some cotton has been planted and prices are down 23%.

Dairies are faring better with $21.50 milk, up 28% from last year. We will watch school openings to see if the supply is met with demand. Cattle are decent with prices at $98, down 10% from a year ago.

Our bank will watch the 3rd quarter as a gauge on economic momentum. The virus remains with us and with the PPP coming to an end, we will see if Washington D.C. has any more stimulus in store. There is more uncertainty out there than we saw in March.

 July 2020

Current Month

Last Month

Last Year

 Index*

169.30

161.37

173.59

 Sales Tax Collections

$6,314,715

$5,726,982

$6,344,387

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$45,391,756

$39,077,041

$45,135,635

 New Vehicle Sales

683

585

642

 Used Vehicle Sales

1,807

1,590

1,606

 Airline Boardings

5,041

1,512

33,127

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$284,572

$143,158

$656,305

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

125,555

121,586

131,854

 Unemployment Rate

6.00%

8.50%

2.80%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

117,959

111,218

128,193

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

112,900

111,884

120,577

 Average Weekly Wages

$955.84

$955.84

$924.45

 Gas

68,904

68,832

62,983

Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

2.875%

3.125%

4.130%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$63,685,646

$50,043,199

$25,433,767

 Year to Date Permits

$255,216,275

$191,530,629

$196,890,076

 Residential Starts

25

32

42

 Year To Date Starts

217

192

218

 Six Months Trailing

$257,738

$206,994

$194,774

 Median House Sold Price

$209,000

$193,000

$177,900

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

0

0

12

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$40.80

$36.56

$59.60

 Natural Gas

$1.74

$1.74

$2.32

 Wheat Per Bushel

$4.22

$4.43

$4.55

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$98.20

$110.10

$108.92

 Corn Per Bushel

$3.51

$3.33

$4.62

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$55.00

$54.90

$71.70

Milk

$21.50

$19.00

$16.75

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

Big Picture Economics
July 2020

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published a paper on analyzing the effects of the economic downturn. They looked at “High Risk Industries” and their effect on individual cities.

These industries employment levels are:

  Amarillo   Lubbock  
Energy (mining) 7,400   9,600  
Transportation and Retail 25,900   29,800  
Hospitality and Restaurants 9,300   17,300  
         
Total 40,100 36% 50,900 38%
         
Government 22,000   33,000  

These industries may have bigger unemployment shocks as the resulting drag on the cities. They said Midland, Odessa and Laredo had the highest share of employment at 43%, 33% and 30%. Waco was one of the lowest at 15%. Statewide is 21% and nationally 13%

Other Comparisons (vs. 12 mos.ago) Amarillo Lubbock
     
Retail Sales (June) - .5% +2.4%
     
Airline Boardings -85% - 70%
Hotel Motel Tax -57% - 51%
     
Building Permits Month +150% + 7%
Housing Starts Month - 41% +85%
Housing Starts YTD Flat +35%
Median House Price + 17% + 3%
     
Actual    
     
Housing Starts YTD 217 1,035
Median House Price $208,000 $192,000
Building Permits YTD $255 Million $254 Million
Gas Hookups 68,904 73,218
Wages (weekly) $955 $885
Airline Boardings 5,041 14,827
New Vehicle Sales (June) 683 944
Used Vehicle Sales 1,807 2,320

 

Back to Top