Economic Analysis

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November 2018

The Panhandle economy continues to strengthen, carried by strong retail sales, growing jobs and stable commodity prices.

Retail sales for the month are up 6% compared to 2017 and year to date sales are up 4%. New car sales are up 5% and used car sales are up 14%.  Airline boardings are up 7% from 12 months ago but the Hotel/Motel Tax collections are down 4%.

Amarillo’s Employers’ Survey shows an adjusted increase of 2,800 jobs from last year. The Household Survey’s adjusted number is an increase of 2,500 jobs. Wages are up 4% and we will watch this number along with inflation to see if they are in line.

Building permits are up 89% from a year ago. Large projects in this number are restaurants, a tractor supply store and an athletic facility on Amarillo Boulevard. Year to Date permits are up 12% from 2017.

Home construction is up in Amarillo with 46 residential starts last month, up from 28 starts 12 months ago. Year to Date Starts (482) are up 21% from last year. 30 year Mortgage rates are 5.25%.

Wheat prices are up 29% from a year ago and the recent moisture bodes well for winter wheat. Corn prices are up 6%. Cotton is being harvested right now and prices are up 11% although the crop isn’t expected to perform this year.

Feedyards are operating below break evens with prices at $114, down 8% from last year. Dairies are right above breakeven with milk prices at $15.

Oil and gas is mixed this month. There are 25 drilling rigs in the Panhandle, 7 more than this time last year.  Oil is down around $56, while natural gas prices are going higher. Our area production is seeing this price come their way and some are expecting to get strong hedge positions out of this price spike.

Amarillo’s Cost of Living Index is up just over 3% year to date.

 November 2018

Current Month 

Last Month 

 Last Year

 Index*

212.51

190.00

191.12

 Sales Tax Collections

$7,082,897

$6,302,557

$6,669,063

 Sales Tax Collection-YTD

$71,299,255

$64,216,357

$68,524,592

 New Vehicle Sales

1,002

1,032

952

 Used Vehicle Sales

3,060

2,668

2,678

 Vehicle Registrations (Stickers)

18,853

18,589

14,055

 Airline Boardings

29,741

30,941

27,849

 Hotel/Motel Receipt Tax

$546,033

$678,284

$568,641

 Population - Corporate Amarillo

191,514

191,514

191,514

 Employment - CLF

133,500

132,200

131,400

 Unemployment Rate

2.50%

2.70%

2.40%

 Total Workers Employed (Household Survey)

130,100

128,800

128,300

 Total Workers Employed (Employers Survey) 

122,600

121,300

122,400

 Average Weekly Wages

$898.78

$898.78

$861.39

 Gas

63,259

62,549

62,529

 Water Connection

71,510

71,003

70,881

 Interest Rates: 30 Year Mortgage Rates

5.250%

5.250%

4.25%

 Building Permits Dollar Amount

$56,473,046

$24,008,727

$29,909,236

 Year to Date Permits

$422,679,561

$366,406,514

$376,949,930

 Residential Starts

46

36

28

 Year To Date Starts

482

436

397

 Median House Sold Price

$172,000

$177,000

$174,500

 Drilling Rigs In Panhandle

25

26

18

 Oil Price Per Barrel

$71.34

$68.71

$55.00

 Natural Gas

$3.16

$2.81

$3.12

 Wheat Per Bushel

$4.88

$4.95

$3.79

 Fed Cattle Per CWT

$114.13

$110.99

$123.60

 Corn Per Bushel

$3.88

$3.82

$3.65

 Cotton (Cents Per Pound)

$71.10

$69.70

$63.80

Milk

$15.00

$15.00

$15.75

*Base-100, January 1988

This document was prepared by Amarillo National Bank on behalf of itself for distribution in Amarillo, Texas and is provided for informational purposes only. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained herein relate to specific dates and are subject to change without notice due to market and other fluctuations. The information, opinions, estimates and forecasts contained in this document have been gathered or obtained from public sources believed to be accurate, complete and/or correct. The information and observations contained herein are solely statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or make any other investment decisions.

 

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